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Mutual Fund Research Newsletter, June 2012 edition ... What Happened to the U. S. Bull Market?
"Therefore, while the crystal ball remains cloudy, with possible thunderstorms on the horizon, we think that yield-starved investors will likely resume, once the current near-panic rush to safety subsides, gradually gravitating toward those investments that offer at least the possibility of inflation-beating gains vs. the near zero after-inflation yields likely on most non-stock investments."
>>>>> Non-stock investments, meaning bonds, eh? Yields low = yes, current price appreciation = yes
We all need reminders and reference points in our multi-faceted investment world. Link from Ted's post.
I thought there was a good possibility that the market would pull back to about where it started the year. For the S&P 500 Index that would be 1258. As of today, the S&P 500 Index closed at 1278 ... Well, that is not too far away. Let's see, we still have most of June, July, August and September until we get to fall. And, with the elections ones has to put October in with that mix. I am not looking for a major turn in the market until after the November election is behind us. "Sell in May and Stay Away to St. Legers Day" seems to be in vogue this year.
So perhaps well get back towards the 1090 range and that would equate to about a forward P/E Ratio of 10 with estimated earnings at 109. Quite possible ... Don't you think?
Here is some intersting spiff that I follow and might be of interest to some. Morningstar has the market marked at about a 14% discount to fair value. By my math, I have the S&P 500 trading on a current forward P/E Ratio of 11.7. And, in review of my T/A charting, I score price movement bearish (-1) ... MacD bearish (-1) ... MFI bearish (-1) ... and, the Slow Stoch bearish (-1). That adds up to a (-4) and a sell signal. My chart has the price line at its 200 DMA. So if it breaks below, the market most likely will continue its decline and where it stops ... nobody really knows! (My guess, 1090). That would be a decline of better than 20% off its recent high of about 1420. And, with this, the traders could make about 30% coming off this low, of 1090, back up to the high, of 1420, if indeed this were to occur.
What has skeeter been doing? He has bought a little around the edges and adding to certain select positions in the materials and energy sectors plus a few other funds that are kicking off some good dividends. No major purchases just small amounts; and, in all, the purchases this week totaled less than one-half of one percent.
Still sitting on about 25% cash, 25% income and 50% equity and other. No major deployment of cash just yet into equity ballast. Note, my portfolio generates income at the rate of about one and one quarter percent per quarter on amount invested. The money I have been rolling back into equities has mostly come from the portfolio's income generation feature and not from cash ballast.
Comments
The article writer noted:
"Therefore, while the crystal ball remains cloudy, with possible thunderstorms on the horizon, we think that yield-starved investors will likely resume, once the current near-panic rush to safety subsides, gradually gravitating toward those investments that offer at least the possibility of inflation-beating gains vs. the near zero after-inflation yields likely on most non-stock investments."
>>>>> Non-stock investments, meaning bonds, eh? Yields low = yes, current price appreciation = yes
We all need reminders and reference points in our multi-faceted investment world. Link from Ted's post.
"Print and read aloud 3 times, then hang onto the wall"
Regards,
Catch
I thought there was a good possibility that the market would pull back to about where it started the year. For the S&P 500 Index that would be 1258. As of today, the S&P 500 Index closed at 1278 ... Well, that is not too far away. Let's see, we still have most of June, July, August and September until we get to fall. And, with the elections ones has to put October in with that mix. I am not looking for a major turn in the market until after the November election is behind us. "Sell in May and Stay Away to St. Legers Day" seems to be in vogue this year.
So perhaps well get back towards the 1090 range and that would equate to about a forward P/E Ratio of 10 with estimated earnings at 109. Quite possible ... Don't you think?
Here is some intersting spiff that I follow and might be of interest to some. Morningstar has the market marked at about a 14% discount to fair value. By my math, I have the S&P 500 trading on a current forward P/E Ratio of 11.7. And, in review of my T/A charting, I score price movement bearish (-1) ... MacD bearish (-1) ... MFI bearish (-1) ... and, the Slow Stoch bearish (-1). That adds up to a (-4) and a sell signal. My chart has the price line at its 200 DMA. So if it breaks below, the market most likely will continue its decline and where it stops ... nobody really knows! (My guess, 1090). That would be a decline of better than 20% off its recent high of about 1420. And, with this, the traders could make about 30% coming off this low, of 1090, back up to the high, of 1420, if indeed this were to occur.
What has skeeter been doing? He has bought a little around the edges and adding to certain select positions in the materials and energy sectors plus a few other funds that are kicking off some good dividends. No major purchases just small amounts; and, in all, the purchases this week totaled less than one-half of one percent.
Still sitting on about 25% cash, 25% income and 50% equity and other. No major deployment of cash just yet into equity ballast. Note, my portfolio generates income at the rate of about one and one quarter percent per quarter on amount invested. The money I have been rolling back into equities has mostly come from the portfolio's income generation feature and not from cash ballast.
Have a good weekend ... and, Good Investing,
Skeeter