Hi Guys,
Very recently we debated forecasting accuracy. It is a real challenge with accuracy degrading rapidly as a function of time. It is a rare talent that few consistently command. Many agree that luck is a major factor that distorts a reliable forecasting measure.
Prediction accuracy has been tested recently by researcher Phil Tetlock. His research was extensive both in time and in number of participants. He recently published a book that documents his findings titled "Superforecasting".. It is excellent.
Recently, Michael Mauboussin has published a short paper that summarizes Tetlock's findings and ways to improve your own forecasting skill set. The paper is an easy read and well worthwhile the time expenditure. Here is a Link to that fine summary paper:
https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&source_id=em&document_id=1053681521&serialid=gRAGx5o9KjpeAGBLPq7bpyJRa6r6fj06KjHB6PGBbGU=Please give it a look/see. It just might marginally improve your investing success.
Best Regards.
