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U.S. Treasuries Staged A Wild Intraday Swing After The Election
FYI: Of all the asset classes making huge moves in the wake of Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election, there's one whose wild gyrations stand out above all else: 10-year U.S. Treasuries.
Looking back, Wednesday reveals the widest divergence I can recall in recent years between bonds and equities. Bonds of nearly every shape and color (long duration, short duration, corporate, government and international) got clocked. Real Estate fell in tandem. Yet domestic equities had a great day along with most commodities.
Was the day an outlier (of little significance), or was it an early sign of some important changes in market direction - likely based on where the new administration may lead? While it doesn't matter much to me - being pretty widely diversified (deworseified) - it could matter to some.
While I have the market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, up about 1.45% my portfolio is only up by 0.3% from the 11/7 market close (2132) vs. the 11/9 market close (2163). This is in part due to my sector allocations, my sizeable cash position, plus my global holdings have not yet begin to participate in the recent rally. My income area held up well with slight gains.
In my early morning viewing today, I am seeing many foreign markets gaining traction. With this, I'm looking for my global holdings to have some good gains today. For the past rolling five days, I am up overall about 1.2% throuh the 11/9 market close while I have the Index up better than 3.5%. I'm thinking my portfolio's returns will be much improved by week's end ... and, perhaps, your's will be as well.
In addition, I lead my bogey ... The Lipper Ballanced Index.
Old _Skeet: How is your portfolio doing compared to the end of 3/rd Qter? I'm down about 1 1/2 %. Just wondering how other are doing from end of the 3/rd qter. Thanks , Derf
Since, Mr. Trump's victory was a surprise to many it also seems to be as well for the market. In my own portfolio, I have had some winning sectors as well as some laggards. All in all my portfolio has the same value comparing market close of November 7th to the close on the 10th. While some things have increased in value some things have also fallen in value netting me even. I guess this is one of the benefits of good diverfication. While my fund managers are perhaps making some changes ... I myself plan to just sit tight and rock along not dong much of anything until things gets sorted out by Mr. Market. Seems, by my math, the market as defined by the S&P 500 Index is up 1.6% form its 11/7 close of 2132 to its 11/10 close of 2167.
My three best performing sleeves since the election are my small/mid cap sleeve found in the growth area of my portfolio followed by my domestic hybrid sleeve found in the growth and income area along with my global hybrid sleeve which is also a member of the growth & income area as well. Its also interesting that my income area has held up much better than anticipated being flat like my portfolio as a whole. Seems, my hybrid income sleeve has, thus far, covered the losses that were a product of my income sleeve netting the area out flat.
Currently, I still lead my bogey ... The Lipper Balanced Index, although it has made some gains of late where I have been flat.
It will be interesting to see how things go today.
Sorry - I don't check or track quarterly. YTD still hanging on to a double-digit year. But seems like I've too been stuck in the mud for several months now. The nice gains came early. Yesterday, despite the 200+ jump in the Dow, I lost a few dollars (literally). Off -.02%.
I don't really have my head around what happened yesterday. Yes, EMs got hammered. Bloomberg says the EMs fear U.S. protectionism will hurt them. OK- makes sense. Though I still give equal credence to Fed Reserve intonations.
What's odd is that a couple of my balanced funds like OAKBX and DODBX did very well - while similarity conservative RPGAX suffered and PRWCX stumbled. Both of the latter sell puts and employ other sophisticated hedging methods to protect against downside and add income. Those trades have worked well for a long time, but didn't work yesterday for whatever reason. In the case of RPGAX, exposure to foreign securities also hurt. And to the extent it invests in a fund of hedge funds, it suggests that the smart (not so smart?) Wall Street money also got burnt.
Another good one to watch is HSGFX which lives and dies by these hedging techniques. Off -1.82% yesterday.
For the week ... I have the S&P 500 Index up +3.8% from its 11/4 close of 2085 to its 11/11 close of 2164 while the Lipper Ballanced Index was up +1.4%. For the same period Old_Skeet was up a meer +0.9%. Year-to-date, I lead my bogey 6.5% vs. 5.5% according to Morningstar's Portfolio Manager which I use to track my portfolio's investment returns.
Folks, for me the important thing is I did not lose money for the week and given that my portfolio is a diviserified one designed to produce income as well as some capital appreciation along the way ... actually, I am quite please with how it performed this past week. I'm thinking it could have been worse from reading that many income investors got hammered.
My three best performing funds, for the week, were ABSAX +10.45% ... PCVAX +7.50% ... & FDSAX +5.47%
My three worst performing funds, for the week, were PGUAX -3.21% ... AJVAX -2.65% ... & NEWFX -1.66%.
According to my Portfolio Equity Weighting Matrix Barometer I need to be currently invested around 48% to 49% equity mark; however, with us now being in the first part of a traditional fall seasonal investment trend I am currently above that at about 51%. I am still with my plan to raise my equity allocation upward by a couple of percent to 53% as we move towards Thanksgiving and remain at this level to around Easter. Naturally, if I begin to see equities breaking down before Easter comes, I will begin a sell down strategy reducing my equity allocation and raising cash by a like amount. My allocation for equities within my portfolio ranges from 45% to 55%. I usually use my matrix as a tool to help govern this allocation plus I usually make allowances for seasonal trends. In short, load equities in the fall and reduce them during the summer months.
Comments
Was the day an outlier (of little significance), or was it an early sign of some important changes in market direction - likely based on where the new administration may lead? While it doesn't matter much to me - being pretty widely diversified (deworseified) - it could matter to some.
While I have the market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, up about 1.45% my portfolio is only up by 0.3% from the 11/7 market close (2132) vs. the 11/9 market close (2163). This is in part due to my sector allocations, my sizeable cash position, plus my global holdings have not yet begin to participate in the recent rally. My income area held up well with slight gains.
In my early morning viewing today, I am seeing many foreign markets gaining traction. With this, I'm looking for my global holdings to have some good gains today. For the past rolling five days, I am up overall about 1.2% throuh the 11/9 market close while I have the Index up better than 3.5%. I'm thinking my portfolio's returns will be much improved by week's end ... and, perhaps, your's will be as well.
In addition, I lead my bogey ... The Lipper Ballanced Index.
Skeet
Thanks , Derf
Here is what's happening with me.
Since, Mr. Trump's victory was a surprise to many it also seems to be as well for the market. In my own portfolio, I have had some winning sectors as well as some laggards. All in all my portfolio has the same value comparing market close of November 7th to the close on the 10th. While some things have increased in value some things have also fallen in value netting me even. I guess this is one of the benefits of good diverfication. While my fund managers are perhaps making some changes ... I myself plan to just sit tight and rock along not dong much of anything until things gets sorted out by Mr. Market. Seems, by my math, the market as defined by the S&P 500 Index is up 1.6% form its 11/7 close of 2132 to its 11/10 close of 2167.
My three best performing sleeves since the election are my small/mid cap sleeve found in the growth area of my portfolio followed by my domestic hybrid sleeve found in the growth and income area along with my global hybrid sleeve which is also a member of the growth & income area as well. Its also interesting that my income area has held up much better than anticipated being flat like my portfolio as a whole. Seems, my hybrid income sleeve has, thus far, covered the losses that were a product of my income sleeve netting the area out flat.
Currently, I still lead my bogey ... The Lipper Balanced Index, although it has made some gains of late where I have been flat.
It will be interesting to see how things go today.
Skeet
I don't really have my head around what happened yesterday. Yes, EMs got hammered. Bloomberg says the EMs fear U.S. protectionism will hurt them. OK- makes sense. Though I still give equal credence to Fed Reserve intonations.
What's odd is that a couple of my balanced funds like OAKBX and DODBX did very well - while similarity conservative RPGAX suffered and PRWCX stumbled. Both of the latter sell puts and employ other sophisticated hedging methods to protect against downside and add income. Those trades have worked well for a long time, but didn't work yesterday for whatever reason. In the case of RPGAX, exposure to foreign securities also hurt. And to the extent it invests in a fund of hedge funds, it suggests that the smart (not so smart?) Wall Street money also got burnt.
Another good one to watch is HSGFX which lives and dies by these hedging techniques. Off -1.82% yesterday.
FWIW
For the week ... I have the S&P 500 Index up +3.8% from its 11/4 close of 2085 to its 11/11 close of 2164 while the Lipper Ballanced Index was up +1.4%. For the same period Old_Skeet was up a meer +0.9%. Year-to-date, I lead my bogey 6.5% vs. 5.5% according to Morningstar's Portfolio Manager which I use to track my portfolio's investment returns.
Folks, for me the important thing is I did not lose money for the week and given that my portfolio is a diviserified one designed to produce income as well as some capital appreciation along the way ... actually, I am quite please with how it performed this past week. I'm thinking it could have been worse from reading that many income investors got hammered.
My three best performing funds, for the week, were ABSAX +10.45% ... PCVAX +7.50% ... & FDSAX +5.47%
My three worst performing funds, for the week, were PGUAX -3.21% ... AJVAX -2.65% ... & NEWFX -1.66%.
According to my Portfolio Equity Weighting Matrix Barometer I need to be currently invested around 48% to 49% equity mark; however, with us now being in the first part of a traditional fall seasonal investment trend I am currently above that at about 51%. I am still with my plan to raise my equity allocation upward by a couple of percent to 53% as we move towards Thanksgiving and remain at this level to around Easter. Naturally, if I begin to see equities breaking down before Easter comes, I will begin a sell down strategy reducing my equity allocation and raising cash by a like amount. My allocation for equities within my portfolio ranges from 45% to 55%. I usually use my matrix as a tool to help govern this allocation plus I usually make allowances for seasonal trends. In short, load equities in the fall and reduce them during the summer months.
And, so it goes.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Skeet