A Caution ... But, not an alarm, just yet!

Old_Skeet

For those interested and for those that are students of the markets, as I am, I thought I'd share a recent discovery and my near term thinking.

A primary technical market indicator for the S&P 500 Index along with three minor indicators, that I follow, indicates market caution is now warranted while my following on earnings for the Index indicate earnings are improving and they are looking to improve as we move through the 4Q16.

I'm thinking, for us to have a good fall stock market rally we will first need to have a good stock market pullback. Leading into the November 8th election could be the market pullback triger that leads to this anticipated pullback followed by a rebound rally that improves, after the election, as we move through 4Q16 and into 1Q17. It will depend on 4Q16 earnings reporting that takes place towards the middle of January as to just how far this anticipated rally will run along with a good 1Q17 earnings reporting.

If the pullback developes ... like I think it will ... I've got my buying britches on. I am thinking that a Clinton victory would be less disruptive for the markets as they would need to get a read on a Trump victory before things settled down. Either way, I look for 4Q16 and 1Q17 earnings to improve as well as the market.

And, so-it-goes.

Skeet

catch22

All in here, 50/50; equity/bonds ($257 in cash account...-rounded). As the markets remain perverted by central bank policy(s), earnings adjusted by accounting methods and cranial/rectal inversion in the area of political warfare and those who will retain their political seat in D.C., a coin toss may provide as likely a scenario as anything.

Old_Skeet

Hi @Catch22,

Good morning,

Sounds to me you are fully invested holding such little cash. For me, I am 23% cash, 32% domestic stocks, 17% foreign stocks, 24% bonds and 4% other according to my most recent Instant Xray.

I'm holding some cash ... because, I not so sure about the outcome of your referenced coin toss thus this resulting in some uncertainity and a possible market pullback although I have reduced my cash and raised equities, by a couple of percent, since my last reporting while some of my hybrid funds have made some adjustments as well which has effected my overall allocation putting me up 4% to 49% in equites from my last reported 45%. Again, looking to do some more buying during a pullback based upon projected earnings outlook.

Peace,

Skeet

Derf

I don't think I'd sleep well with only $3 figures in cash !!!!
Derf

Junkster

catch22 said:

All in here, 50/50; equity/bonds ($257 in cash account). As the markets remain perverted by central bank policy(s), earnings adjusted by accounting methods and cranial/rectal inversion in the area of political warfare and those who will retain their political seat in D.C., a coin toss may provide as likely a scenario as anything.

$66.54 here in my cash account.

hank

Junkster said:

$66.54 here in my cash account.

Is that $66.54M or $66.54B?

I hope it's not simply $66.54. I carry more than that in my shoe.

hank

I've noticed a number of single malts selling for over $100. Curious if any here stockpile these and count them as part of their liquid assets?

bee

I believe this is @Junkster's discretionary fund for hiking shoes and peanut butter sandwiches.

Stay fully invested, have stops in place and live frugally...works for me.

Junkster

Ha-Ha! There is a reason it's $66 (and not 0) and that's a result of an issue I once had with an exchange between the same fund family and the need to have $66 in my cash balance.

Junkster

bee said:

I believe this is @Junkster's discretionary fund for hiking shoes and peanut butter sandwiches.

Stay fully invested, have stops in place and live frugally...works for me.

You pretty much nailed it! Love when those monthly dividends are posted to my account the first day of the new trading month. This is my retirement account not my taxable (just bought some new Keens hiking boots for $135) And it's peanut butter on crackers which has been the staple of my diet like forever.

VintageFreak

I also run my ANALysis model daily. I'm still at 66% allocation and UPWARD bias. I only use this for my 401ks/IRAs. The % tells me how much I should be invested. The bias tells me whether to continue to re-invest or not.

FWIW.

Derf

VF : Are you reinvesting or stockpiling the cash at this time ? Derf

VintageFreak

33% in cash is stockpiling? My tax deferred accounts are my major savings. I learned from 2000 and only because of it navigated 2008 well.

Not sure what you are asking. Like I said, I am reinvesting 401k contributions because my BIAS is UP, but only 2 out of 3 dollars.

PS I actually publish my ANALysis on a site, but I will never post link here. If you want to search...

Derf

VF : thanks for the come back. " 33% in cash is stockpiling? " Not for me anyhow ! I have to believe I'm over that threshold. So to restate the question, are you reinvesting 2/3 of dividends & capital gains back into the market & 1/3 to cash ?
Thanks for your time.
Derf