Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The oft-posted “analyses” from Barrons and WSJ look like the babblings of child compared to the following analysis. Lots of ideas, lots of graphics. But still very, VERY long. And depressing.
But it does a good job of integrating a lot of important ideas, data & trends…
I glanced at the reference, but I don't plan on reading it in detail.
It's not that it is too detailed although it is. It's because it projects highly unlikely events that are potentially huge in terms of catastrophic impact. Using a scale proposed by author N. Taleb, these are not black swans, not white swans, but rather gray swans.
I don't react to that rating scale since a list of these potential major events seem to repeat themselves each year. They are far beyond my ability to control, to understand, or to predict the happening likelihood with any degree of confidence. So I don't worry them. If I did I would likely suffer paralysis by analyses. That's a loser's game.
So I don't worry floods or earthquakes or foreign government takeovers. I protect myself by diversification and by keeping a reserve of cash and near cash holdings. I sleep well at night.
In the past, I wasted too much time reading lists of countless low probability events. I suppose scare tactics sell papers and make some folks famous, especially when one of these rare events does happen. That's luck and not forecasting skill. Why worry?
EDIT: Behavioral Economics studies suggest that most folks overrate the occurrence of low probability events. That's one reason why lottery games are so successful for the organizers, and not for the players.
Comments
I glanced at the reference, but I don't plan on reading it in detail.
It's not that it is too detailed although it is. It's because it projects highly unlikely events that are potentially huge in terms of catastrophic impact. Using a scale proposed by author N. Taleb, these are not black swans, not white swans, but rather gray swans.
I don't react to that rating scale since a list of these potential major events seem to repeat themselves each year. They are far beyond my ability to control, to understand, or to predict the happening likelihood with any degree of confidence. So I don't worry them. If I did I would likely suffer paralysis by analyses. That's a loser's game.
So I don't worry floods or earthquakes or foreign government takeovers. I protect myself by diversification and by keeping a reserve of cash and near cash holdings. I sleep well at night.
In the past, I wasted too much time reading lists of countless low probability events. I suppose scare tactics sell papers and make some folks famous, especially when one of these rare events does happen. That's luck and not forecasting skill. Why worry?
EDIT: Behavioral Economics studies suggest that most folks overrate the occurrence of low probability events. That's one reason why lottery games are so successful for the organizers, and not for the players.
Best Wishes.