Hello,
From time-to-time I post my thinking and what I am about to do.
The Bad News ... From a study of my reference sources 3Q2016 reported earnings for the S&P 500 Index are projected to be down year-over-year by about 3%.
The Good News ... While 3Q2016 reported earnings are projected to again be in decline 4Q2016 year-over-year reported earnings are project to increase by about 8% or so.
From a valuation point of view my valuation study is showing that stocks are currently overvalued while at yearend they should be somewhere close to being fairly valued if my valuation and earnings projections come to be along with the Index closing 2016 at a new high of about 2235. This is 100 points above of where I thought the Index would close as we entered 2016.
If all this comes to be then Old_Skeet will need to do some equity buying as I am currently light in equities based upon my yearend projection. Plus, we are now entering fall where equities are historically known to stage a rally. The big question is how will the Presidentiial election and a possible fed rate increase before yearend effect Old_Skeet's current thinking.
Since, I am cash heavy at the moment within my asset allocation I am going to move to an equity weighting as called for in my matrix based upon these projections. This will result in about a +5% increase in equities for me and a reduction in cash by a like amount. Remember, yearend mutual fund distributions are coming; and, for tax efficiency I will doing this positioning change through asset movement within my ira account. When complete, in the near term, I will be somewhere around 20% (down 5%) cash, 25% income, 50% (up 5%) equity and 5% other. With my mutual funds distributions mostly set to pay to cash I am expecting a cash allocation build as we move through 4Q2016 within my portfolio. So, my nearterm equity load will be somewhat offset by the cash load coming form my mutual fund yearend distributions as cash agains builds towards yearend. Using last year distribution numbers one half of my cash received (from mutual fund distributions) came in the fourth quarter.
At yearend, I'll be looking to reset my asset allocation through another rebalance process, if warranted.
And ... for me ... so it goes.
I wonder, what you might be doing as we enter the 4th Quarter?
Comments
Can't recall if you're in NC or SC. Either way, suggest you start tying things down.
Stay safe, hank
Currently, I am at my residence in Charlotte, NC. A neighbor in Murrells Inlet, SC secured my proerty along with his before he and his faimly headed to Charlotte today to spend some time with us and to wait out the storm. We made it through Hugo 1n 1989 ok in both places ... but, with some property damage in Charlotte so one never knows. Matthew could indeed become another Hugo. Hugo was the most destructive storm I have seen in my lifetime with high winds (140 mph in McClellanville, SC with 100 mph winds in Charlotte, NC) along with 100 year flooding in the coastal area. Heck, West Va and Penn had a good bit of damage form Hugo.
It is interesting, from Hugo, I had property damage in Charlotte and at the coast only had to rake up pine needles.
Thanks for thinking of me and your concern.
I'm a sucker for these type of threads. So, here goes....
Been puppy stepping into healthcare on weakness (i.e., baby). Duke liked that. Going infrastructure no matter who wins....money will be made. Also, going long on bonds, on the rise in rates. I think it will be slow because no one wants a crash. Also, something seems to be going on with CHTTX. Looks like AMG bought them .....not sure though. Am ready to move on anyway. Looking at (PARMX) or an index. Also the most down revisions are in the 3rd quarter more than any other time. So, if it sounds good, it might be. Also, be on the lookout for Reit's with the storm coming.....just saying. Also, did you know only 1 bank has been started since 2008 with the Feds. Yep! And small it is right now if your curious tell me who it is. ........just a pause.....Duke's got me a longneck. Am looking at KO and PFE to buy. Would like them to go lower though. Also keep safe with the storm. What you own can be replaced. You, of course, cannot.
God bless
the Pudd
https://investor.amgfunds.com/amg-aston-integration
Thanks for making comment which I feel needs a response since it ask a question.
I am sure this information is know by others more so by big money and perhaps not so much by the small retail investor. My post was intended to share information that I found important and helpful to me not saying others should trade off of it by following my positioning.
If it is felt that the information I have been posting is too commonly know by most readers of the board then I will, in the future, refrain for posting it.
I posted it in the spirit of helping others.
No doubt, in judging the question, it might not have been helpful to you; but, maybe it was for someone else.
"I posted it in the spirit of helping others."
Isn't that what this all about? Thanks for all your efforts on this platform,and keep sharing your thoughts and observations.May you and all those close to you be safe in the coming days.
Mutual Fund Observer readers;
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