Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

The search for the elusive natural interest rate, ya but......is natural only historic numbers?

From the article: "People are buying stocks because they have to put their money to work somewhere—and the main alternative, the bond market, seems to offer even lower future returns."

>>>A presumption from the above article passage must be assumed that the writer expects yields to remain static at or near the current 10 year note yield of 1.5%; plus or minus .2%, let us guess. This being the case would offer a flat return in some bond holdings going forward. The writer doesn't express the possibility of the 10 year going to 1% yield or. No mention of price appreciation from bond holdings.
The article discusses more than the bond portion of investments. You may find other market thoughts from the writer of interest.
Will bond happiness run its course to some form of "reversion to the mean"? One must expect this; but what is the "mean" in today's economic environment? A form of natural interest rate is established with the buys and sells of investors. But, this value is laid upon the actions of central bank policy positions globally.
The most telling real time natural pricing I have been able to observe since 1997, is itme pricing at EBAY. Investment markets, in spite of big and hot money; have similar actions
Lastly; currently well placed bond investments and their holders are making enough money to order whatever they choose from the restaurant menu and leave a good tip, too.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-22/the-search-for-the-elusive-natural-interest-rate

Take care and stay aware,
Catch
Sign In or Register to comment.