FYI: Thinking over the intermediate-term, say the next ten years, you don’t have to look very hard to find people who expect low stock returns. The very simple and very reasonable thesis goes like this; In the early 1980s, interest rates were high and valuations were low. This combination left plenty of room for stocks to advance, and advance they did, growing at nearly 18% a year for the next twenty years.
Unfortunately, we find ourselves today in the exact opposite situation. Valuations are high (although not nearly as expensive now as they were cheap then) and interest rates don’t have much space between where they currently are and zero. And given that stocks are up 260% from the bottom in 2009, it’s easy to understand why low expected returners feel this way (even though stocks are up just 66% from the 2007 highs).
Regards,
Ted
http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2016/07/13/long-term-really-long-term-and-what-you-should-focus-on/
