Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around.....Bonds, bonds,bonds. As I have noted before, these are, in my opinion, the backbone of money at all scales; from small local gov'ts. and businesses to the large scale operations of central gov'ts. As to this and we individuals; we also issue a form of bond, in reverse. Very few individuals put up the full amount of monies for two major purchases; being a home(s) and several vehicles throughout our lifetime. One may shop around for the best mortgage or vehicle loan, obtain a loan and in effect have a private issue bond produced in your name. Not unlike traditional bonds, your credit worthiness will affect the yield (interest rate you pay). How does this relate to anything investing. It is nothing more than what our house attempts to view and understand all of what surrounds we investors each and every day. We try to place ourselves into the various positions of the financial machinations in the most simple terms we might understand. As this house will never have an inside track to how or why the big money houses or central banks function; nor will we have the intellectual skills to master all of the subtle changes (sometimes in 275 millisecond time frames---trading computers), we do our best to attempt to determine both fundamental and technical aspects of the markets(sectors), in a simple form and make choices from these aspects to position our monies, .
With a part-time staff of 2, on the best of days; our research staff does its best to find the major cause and effect issues in place.
An example is that "x" number of folks are familiar with a nearly perfect formed, very gently sloping range of small mountains, with either downslope side having 20 small water streams, that feed 10 larger streams, then 5 larger streams and then into one large river on either side of the Bondequity mountain range. A weather forecast notes that there will be a rather strong and slow moving storm; producing more than average rainfall, in the area. Each mountainside has its own set of crop growers (investors), being the bond and equity farmers. Some farmers have diversified/mixed their crops. In either case, not enough or too much rain may cause problems for either farm type; whereas it is possible for both crop types to provide ample returns with just the right amount of rainfall.
Knowing or tracking the storm path may be of great benefit to all growers in order to help protect the crops through the system of drainage gates and bypasses that have been used in this area for many years. Heavy rains may still prove to be overwhelming in the low lying areas in the flat lands below; as the amount of rain diverted above will still find its way to this area. As usual, there will be those who are aware of the weather conditions; and will plan accordingly, there will also be those not checking the weather forecast until after the storm has begun and those who seldom monitor the weather forecast. As time and knowledge allows, one should always make some attempt to monitor some aspects of the weather forecast, in order to protect the planted investment crops.
'Course, an ongoing problem area is too much information about the weather forecast, and who or what appears to be credible; and why. And yes, the forecast always has a mix of fundamental and technical aspects, eh?
Watch the forecast, short, medium and long term; or be prepared to find water over the boot tops.
I have added a few blips related to our portfolio and market observations at the below SELLs/BUYs and Portfolio Thoughts.
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
--- NONE ---
Portfolio Thoughts:Our holdings had a
+ .45 % move this past week. Sidenote: The average return of 200 combined Fidelity retail funds across all sectors (week avg = -.96, YTD +8.1%). Investment grade bonds gave support to the portfolio last week, the HY/HI bond sector was down about .22% and the equity funds were mixed to down. We're watching who and what is "twitchy". The following quote from last week reminds me of the more than two years of some of the "interesting" quotes that have arrived from Europe.... “I don’t see a good reason” for buying government bonds, Knot of the ECB said today at an event in Amsterdam. “I think there has been an overreaction to the
unfortunate communication surrounding Spain.” Klaas Knot is a governing member of the ECB. Knot is commenting about the ECB buying more of Spain's bonds to offset the yields that have continued to increase after the LTRO (QE) placements of several months. Spain will have another bond auction this coming week, which will help tell more of this picture. One may conclude that bond yields for Spain and Italy have risen again; because the evil bond traders are playing games, or that folks are a bit on edge about holding the product due to the "unfortunate communications" regarding a vast array of circumstances in Spain in partiuclar that may indicate quality problems. One may suspect that the central bankers sure don't care much for all of the data (of which the public has a right of knowledge) traveling the globe. I will presume that the ECB will have to form a plan to move more Euro's to Spain and others again. My favorite quote person of the past 6 months is Christine LaGarde of the IMF. Perhaps I can find a top ten list.
Lastly, the U.S. is still my top equity pick from the turd pile list.
The old Funds Boat is at anchor, riding in the small waves and watching the weather. To the high praise of MFO and the members, it is very difficult to find a topic to note here that has not been placed into the discussion boards. Excellence, as usual.
I have retained the following links for those who may choose to do their own holdings comparison against the fund types noted.
This 1st link to Bloomberg is for their list of balanced funds; although I don't always agree with the placement of fund styles in their categories.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?Sector=888&pid=invest_mutualfunds&ListBy=YTD&Term=1These next two links are for conservative and moderate fund leaders YTD, per MSN.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/topfundresults.asp?Symbol=$HF&Category=CAhttp://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/topfundresults.asp?Category=MA&Type=&symbol=$HFA reflection upon the links above; we attempt to establish a "benchmark" for our portfolio to help us "see" how our funds are performing. Aside from viewing many funds within the balanced/flexible funds rankings (the above links), a quick and dirty group of 4 funds we watch for psuedo benchmarking are the following:
***Note: these YTD's per M*
VWINX .... - .13 week, YTD = + 3.26%
PRPFX .... - .04 week, YTD = + 4.36%
SIRRX ..... + .26 week, YTD = + 2.34%
HSTRX .... + .57 week, YTD = + .23%
None of these 4 are twins to our holdings, but we do watch these as a type of rough guage.
Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
---Below is what M* x-ray has attempted to sort for our portfolio, as of March 9, 2012---
U.S.Stocks 10.5%
Foreign Stocks 6.8%
Bonds 78.5% ***
Other 4.2%
Not Classified 0.00%
***about 35% of the bond total are high yield category (equity related cousins)---This % listing is kinda generic, by fund "name"
-Investment grade bond funds 26.8%
-Diversified bond funds 19.8%
-HY/HI bond funds 23.2%
-Total bond funds 17.8%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 8.1%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
APOIX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived)
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock
MACSX Matthews Asia Growth-Income
Comments