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The Clinton Crash Of May 2016

TedTed
in Off-Topic
FYI: The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) is a platform that allows people to wager real money on the outcome of various political elections. Instead of simply asking people their views using a poll, the IEM tracks where people are actually putting their money. The chart below shows the odds (since the start of the year) of the Democratic candidate emerging victorious in November with an overlay of the S&P 500.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/the-clinton-crash-of-may-2016/

Comments

  • hank
    edited May 2016
    Excerpt: "We have been providing regular updates to this chart for some time now, and up until recently there was a strong similarity between the performance of the S&P 500 and how the democratic candidate (presumably Hillary Clinton) was faring in the polls. When the odds of the Democratic candidate increased, the market rallied and vice versa."

    - First, the people placing wagers on the IEM are probably professional gamblers. What would they know about politics and elections?

    - Second, if the thesis is correct - that falling poll numbers for Clinton are resulting in a drop in the S&P 500 - than wouldn't the opposite be equally true? A a rising S&P should be a good omen for Clinton.

    As I suggested at the beginning, it's all silly speculation!
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