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I'm going for it - we are in a declining stock market ...
I think, what he means in "I am going for it ..." The door!
But, not me. I am staying with my asset allocation ranges. I'll have ample cash to raise my equity allocation from its low range of 45% towards its high range of 55% when I feel warranted. Besides if investors begin to run for the door when the market (S&P 500 Index) is only off its 52 week high by about 4% I wonder what they might do should there be a 10% pullback, or more. I'll be a buyer in equites somewhere around the 1920 range (S&P 500 Index) should we get there during the summer. I have been adjusting my allocation to equities over the past few years from a high range of 65%+ downward because I felt they were overvalued and somewhat overbought. Once, we get through the fall elections I am looking for a nice late fall stock market rally to develop. Anyway, this is how I am currently positioned and will ramp up my allocation in equities depending on how the investing landscape developes. I am thinking that third and fourth quarter corporate earnings will begin to improve and provide the needed fuel to support the rally. In addition, I am looking for the FOMC to raise interest rates to cool inflation as my rolling twelve month inflation number might surprise you with a reading of better than six percent from May 2015 through April 2016.
I think that's probably the right call, but down 5%, 10%, 30%? No one knows. So, how does one know when to get back in? I'm all for taking profits here and there, but unless you're prepared to be out for good there is a great risk you'll buy the shares you sell now at a higher price later. For a small amount, that's the price of insurance. If you're talking going all cash, good luck with that. Also would not be shocked to see a rally from here, my downside feel is like 55% at the moment. Could go either way.
Ha, no! I sure hope not. My thought when writing this was that there was only a slightly better chance of a major decline as compared with the current range-bound market or rally to the upside. Taking account of today's action, I'd reduce the odds to 50% or less. Today was the day I would have expected the gutting, but the turn was encouraging. Hit some stops during the worst of it, moving some of my best wins to the side (10% or so of PDT UTG VNQ). My gut right now is we drive to new highs against the odds.
Ha, no! I sure hope not. My thought when writing this was that there was only a slightly better chance of a major decline as compared with the current range-bound market or rally to the upside. Taking account of today's action, I'd reduce the odds to 50% or less. Today was the day I would have expected the gutting, but the turn was encouraging. Hit some stops during the worst of it, moving some of my best wins to the side (10% or so of PDT UTG VNQ). My gut right now is we drive to new highs against the odds.
So, you're saying ... stocks could go up or they could go down.
Folks can use technical analysis to support ANY opinion. Pretty simple, really. Ignore the technical indicators that do not agree with your viewpoint. Talking heads do this all the time. Same for most newsletter writers. I subscribe to SentimenTrader, which is all technical analysis, and I have found it to be pretty fair and balanced. One of the few.
Comments
But, not me. I am staying with my asset allocation ranges. I'll have ample cash to raise my equity allocation from its low range of 45% towards its high range of 55% when I feel warranted. Besides if investors begin to run for the door when the market (S&P 500 Index) is only off its 52 week high by about 4% I wonder what they might do should there be a 10% pullback, or more. I'll be a buyer in equites somewhere around the 1920 range (S&P 500 Index) should we get there during the summer. I have been adjusting my allocation to equities over the past few years from a high range of 65%+ downward because I felt they were overvalued and somewhat overbought. Once, we get through the fall elections I am looking for a nice late fall stock market rally to develop. Anyway, this is how I am currently positioned and will ramp up my allocation in equities depending on how the investing landscape developes. I am thinking that third and fourth quarter corporate earnings will begin to improve and provide the needed fuel to support the rally. In addition, I am looking for the FOMC to raise interest rates to cool inflation as my rolling twelve month inflation number might surprise you with a reading of better than six percent from May 2015 through April 2016.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/sctr.html?&V=E&T=E#&S=P1
(may be slow to load)
Ha, no! I sure hope not. My thought when writing this was that there was only a slightly better chance of a major decline as compared with the current range-bound market or rally to the upside. Taking account of today's action, I'd reduce the odds to 50% or less. Today was the day I would have expected the gutting, but the turn was encouraging. Hit some stops during the worst of it, moving some of my best wins to the side (10% or so of PDT UTG VNQ). My gut right now is we drive to new highs against the odds.
"My gut right now is we drive to new highs against the odds."
Sounds pretty clear to me.