FYI: For those living in the Northeast, the early spring that
arrived in March turned into a miserable April, with winter
coats coming back out of the closet and fewer buds on the
trees than I can ever remember for this time of the year. I’m
not sure Punxsutawney Phil offers refunds on his
predictions, but I distinctly remember it being reported that
Phil did not see his shadow in early February’s Groundhog
Day ceremony, and therefore suggesting those winter coats
should be put away.
Fortunately, financial assets around the world did continue to spring forward in April
as we expected. However, in the past few weeks, we have been reminded that we
predicted the same recovery in depressed asset prices last spring only to see the strong
rally fade into the summer. Will 2016 be a repeat of 2015? Should we sell in May and
go away as some pundits are suggesting? While a pullback or consolidation of the big
rally should be expected, we do not think a swoon like last year will repeat—mainly
because it’s different this time.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.morganstanleyfa.com/public/projectfiles/onthemarkets.pdf
