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Is Sell In May ... and, Stay Away Till St. Leger's Day Here?

edited April 2012 in Fund Discussions
Hello and Good Morning …

I have been following the chart of ISI which is an ETF of the S&P 1500 Index. This Index is comprised of the S&P 500, the S&P 400 (Mid caps) and the S&P 600 (Small caps) Indexes all wrapped into one.

I am going to use similar words that Jeff Saut used in a post that I recently linked of his Monday, April 2nd commentary … These words were in effect … Things are getting kind of "squirrelly." With this I began to study in more detail the charting of ISI … which I have linked below for your easy reference … and, indeed they seem to be getting squirrelly.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=isi#symbol=isi;range=3m;compare=;indicator=dividend+split+sma(21,65,260)+mfi(9)+macd(27,12,9)+stochasticslow;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
Note: I am having a problem in getting the chart to link correctly. If you wish, once the chart displays you can then enter the above noted settings for the technical indicators yourself. It should then display with the information and provide for a more meaningful reading. It seems the hyper link is wanting to short cut.

Let’s now look at the chart which is set for a three month period and the simple moving average lines are for one month (21 trading days), three months (63 trading days) and one year (260 trading days).

Price Movement … The price movement has been in a strong uptrend and has moved form around $58.00 upward to a little better than $64.00 … nice gain … a little better than 8.5%. Since it has been moving side ways the past couple of weeks leads to the question at hand … Is it peaking? To answer that, let’s look at some of the indicators I use to help me make a SWAG, Scientific Wild Ass Guess, as to what’s going on.

MACD … In review of the MACD indicator, it has been in a decline since the week of February 6th. Notice its downward movement since then and the blue trigger line is now below its trend line. I score this bearish.

MFI … In review of the Money Flow Indicator, set for the past nine trading days, it has been in a decline for the past couple weeks. I score this bearish.

Slow Stoch … In review of the SS indicator, it has been in a decline for the past couple weeks and the blue trigger line is below its trend line. I score this bearish.

So with the review of the above … Indeed things seems to be getting squirrelly and if you are thinking of taking a profit on some of your spiff positions as I have been doing since the middle of February now might be a good time to consider this. Be mindful of your asset allocation, in doing this, and don’t sell down too far where you have the fancy to want to reposition back in too soon … Summer is still to come and with this stocks usually go soft during the summer months. Remember the saying and strategy “Sell In May … And, Stay Away Till St Leger’s Day.” It is also linked below for your reading pleasure.

http://allstarcharts.com/truth-behind-sell-in-may-and-go-away/

Have a Great Day … and, I wish you all Good Investing.

Skeeter

Comments

  • Hi Skeeter,

    Thanks for all of you comments. I have also had trouble at times capturing exactly what i want readers to "see". This is one of my reasons for using a screen capture tool like Jing. I believe I followed your missing chart instruction and used jing to produce this chart. How did I do?

    image
  • Hi bee,

    Thank you coming to my aid and adding the chart ... Yes, you have the codes set correctly. Indeed it shows how squirrelly it is ... Don't you think?

    Thanks again,
    Skeeter
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