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Lewis Braham: How To Use Sector Funds To Create A Winning Portfolio

FYI: Why combining the Vanguard Utilities ETF with the Burnham Financial Services fund looks like a winning trade for today’s market.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/#q=How+to+Use+Sector+Funds+to+Create+a+Winning+Portfolio+Barron's

Comments

  • edited April 2016
    @LewisBraham
    Your write takes me back to my time machine. :)
    In the way back days with Fido in the mid-80's, I used to "trade/swap/move" using Fido's select funds. Fido had established their F.A.S.T. system (Fidelity Automated Service Telephone) which allowed buy/sell/pricing info via the touch tone telephone. At the time, Fido's select funds could also be traded each hour of a trade day with pricing set at the top of each hour. Using Fido's fund numbers and touch tone character codes, one could move money around among the majority of their fund offerings.
    I also used the phone system for obtaining closing prices on many funds which were placed onto a paper graph and/or chart. I used this info to establish moving averages via hand graphed charts/tables of funds drawing my attention. The "other" method for we retail investors at the time was to await a paper copy of the WSJ or Barron's for printed pricing of funds.
    Some of this "work" was eventually performed on a real pc at the time (1987). This magic pc, a N.E.C built in Japan; had a massive 20 MB hard drive and 640K ram (the upper limit usable by MS at the time). Twas cool at the time, but very expensive with the monitor and printer.
    A proper reply to your write is that "yes", money can be made using Fido select funds and/or the many combinations available today. We here are well aware of the many choices via select funds or etf's. Folks who are on the ball with what is going on in the markets may obtain excellent returns with these methods. Lots of folks have traveled this road over the years since the introduction of these select funds.
    A Fido time line at the below link:
    https://www.fidelity.com/static/dcle/welcome/documents/Timeline_fid_092709fla.swf

    Regards,
    Catch
  • edited April 2016
    Hi Catch,

    Yes, I remember playing with Fido's Select Funds too. Way back in the 70s or early 80s. Minimums weren't very high. Maybe $500 or $1,000? Closest thing to legal gambling in our state than.

    Must have been a lot of fun. Remember pulling off I-75 on the way north one Friday afternoon to phone in a trade at a coin-operated pay booth. (Cell phones hadn't been invented yet.) :)
  • Nice point in Lewis' article about dispersion.

    Many years ago I posted in misc.invest.mutual-funds opining that Fidelity's use of inexperienced managers in its Select funds really didn't matter, because they were effectively buying bunches of similar stocks (i.e. no skill needed). It seems I was half right - correct only for sectors where companies tend to move together, not for all sectors.

    A few bits of inconsequential trivia:

    - Fidelity Select Funds started in 1981(if there was anything older, it hasn't survived)

    - Those funds appear to have been FSENX (Energy), FIDSX (Financials), FSPHX (Health), FSPTX (Technology), FSUSX (Utilities), and Precious Metals and Minerals (merged into Gold in 2000)

    - The funds were sold with a 3% load, plus a 0.75% redemption/exchange fee for equity funds held under 30 days, and a flat $7.50 for shares held 30+ days

    - Daily pricing started in 1986
    - There are still funds priced more than once daily, viz. some Rydex funds are priced at 10:45 and 4PM

    - Cell phones were invented before Fido Selects. Bell Labs' Advanced Mobile Phone Service ("advanced" being handoff from cell to cell) was invented in the mid 1970s. There was trial service in 1978, and the first commercial service was in 1982.
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/2377716_Advanced_Mobile_Phone_Service_-_An_Overview

    (Years ago I spoke with people from Bell Labs who had worked on AMPS. They felt that but for regulatory issues, cellphones would have been deployed earlier.)
  • >> They felt that but for regulatory issues, ....

    Bell Labs felt that way about everything, ever, every single decade, and long after the breakup as well.
  • msf
    edited April 2016
    The instant AT&T divested itself of the RBOCs (1/1/84), it started marketing its 3B line of minicomputers, developed at Bell Labs. Coincidence?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3B_series_computers
  • @MFO Members: "The funds were sold with a 3% load, plus a 0.75%" The load only applied to the first select fund you bought.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • "The load only applied to the first select fund you bought."

    That's also true of American Funds and all the other load fund families, including Fidelity (Advisor funds). At least with these load funds, you can get advice (we can debate the value of that advice).

    The Select load was pure profit for Fidelity - this "low load" did not go toward paying commissions.
  • edited April 2016
    @msf

    Thanks for the background links.

    Here's another article focused on early cellphones. No desire to detract from Lewis' article. But suspect cell phones and their modern variant smart phones play a critical part in today's investing, be it tracking current investments or (as was often the case with the Fido Selects) actively trading. Since my Fido investments in the early 80s probably amounted to a couple K, plunking down $3,995 for an early cellphone (1984 price) probably would have been imprudent.:)

    "Somewhere in either Chicago, Baltimore or Washington, someone plunked down $3,995 to buy the Motorola DynaTAC 8000X, the first handheld cellphone, on March 13, 1984 — 30 years ago today."
    http://mashable.com/2014/03/13/first-cellphone-on-sale/#uyYq9kRydaq6
  • Boy, I think I recall buying a second Select and paying the commission. Or so I remember now. Huh. They were offered in the first 401k I had available, early 1980s.
  • edited April 2016
    @davidmoran

    I hope your Selects did better than mine. I just played around a year or two with non-retirement money. Probably little gain or loss.

    Memories! In '81 my joints didn't ache. And I could consume half a case or more and still function the next morning.:)
  • They did okay provided I did not fuss with them, which of course I did. I worked in high tech then (and after) and had Select Technology, not patiently enough, and some others. But then I got greedy, and followed the honorable quip of how to make a hundred thou in the market (start with two).
    My fund-selling father offered a pretty solid timing service at the time as well (200d MA and such, calculated to a faretheewell), and was a big fan of Sel Tech also.

    Yes, my body was quite different 30+y ago, osteoarthritis and liver both.
  • @hank- Half a case of what??
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