Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
FYI: Are U.S. stocks really still in a bull market? Technically, yes. Only a bear market can kill a bull market, and traditionally it takes a 20 percent plunge from a peak to mark the beginning of one. The S&P 500 is down about 4 percent from its last record, and it never officially experienced a 20 percent drop, even amid the ugliness of August and January, so the bull is still running, at least theoretically. Regards, Ted http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-04-12/there-s-still-a-bull-market-it-just-doesn-t-feel-like-one
As a respected economist said some time ago, "The most unloved bull market in history." There are folks who bailed in late 2008 and early 2009 who are still sitting in cash and will never, ever recover the losses they realized.
Me for one as it seems to ignore bad news and the high multiples that stocks, in general, are selling for.
From my thinking, I rate this market a hold thus staying within my asset allocation due to its valuation, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, from both a its price level and price to reported earnings ratio (TTM). And, although the bull is still running I am not putting new money to work until there is a good pullback of about ten percent from its peak (currently about 2135) putting the Index somewhere around the 1920 range before I will do some buying by adding to equities and reducing cash by a like amount while being mindful of my overall asset allocaton.
NYMEX @$26 reminded me of RR's famous line "There's gotta be a pony here somewhere." I added quite a bit to funds exposed to energy during January and February. Those have done nicely since the bottom (February) and I've lightened up somewhat.
I suppose it's wrong to try and time markets. But NYMEX under $26 and Goldman predicting $20? Give me a break!
Comments
It looks more like a trading range to me.
Me for one as it seems to ignore bad news and the high multiples that stocks, in general, are selling for.
From my thinking, I rate this market a hold thus staying within my asset allocation due to its valuation, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, from both a its price level and price to reported earnings ratio (TTM). And, although the bull is still running I am not putting new money to work until there is a good pullback of about ten percent from its peak (currently about 2135) putting the Index somewhere around the 1920 range before I will do some buying by adding to equities and reducing cash by a like amount while being mindful of my overall asset allocaton.
NYMEX @$26 reminded me of RR's famous line "There's gotta be a pony here somewhere."
I added quite a bit to funds exposed to energy during January and February. Those have done nicely since the bottom (February) and I've lightened up somewhat.
I suppose it's wrong to try and time markets. But NYMEX under $26 and Goldman predicting $20? Give me a break!