Chip posted our updated ratings on the
Search Tools pages last night, thank you.
Quick look shows ...
All three CGM funds are on the Three Alarm list. As are both Fairholme's equity funds (FAIRX and FAAFX). Sequoia (SEQUX) is not yet ... it has two alarm bells.
bee's fav Bruce (BRUFX) is on the Honor Roll. As is Matthews Asia Dividend Inv (MAPIX), T Rowe Price's Capital Appreciation (PRWCX), and Vanguard's Balanced Index Inv (VBINX), Value Index Inv (VIVAX), Wellesley Income Inv (VWINX), and Vanguard/Wellington I (VWELX).
Remind me again why we should not just invest in VBINX and forget about it?
A little more here ... ignoring survivorship bias, there are 4,856 US funds and ETFs that have been around since the start of current full market cycle in November 2007. Across these 8 plus years, the absolute worst performer is iPath Exchange Traded Notes Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex Total Return ETN Series A (GAZ) at -47.6% return annually ... down 99% or so from peak. Wretched! The best is Biotechnology UltraSector ProFund Inv (BIPIX) at +18.1% annually.
VBINX is at +5.6% annually, which is better than 80% of all other choices. Hmmm ... I'll offer shipwreckedandalone's post
VBINX.
FWIW, Vanguard 500 Index Inv VFINX also returned +5.6% over this period. As has PIMCO Total Return III Inst (PTSAX), Voya Corporate Leaders Trust (LEXCX), and James Balanced: Golden Rainbow Retail (GLRBX).
The just over four year old Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income Inst (SIGIX) remains a Great Owl fund, besting its peers by 8.2% since inception. Also on the GO list are Gavekal KL Allocation Inst (GAVIX), Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Inst (GPGIX), RiverPark Short Term High Yield Inst (RPHIX), FMI International (FMIJX), Pear Tree Polaris Foreign Value Small Cap Inst (QUSIX), Oberweis International Opportunities (OBIOX), Lifestyle Conservative Inst (TCSIX), TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (TTFS), Akre Focus Inst (AKRIX), Zeo Strategic Income I (ZEOIX), Scout Low Duration Bond (SCLDX), Queens Road Small Cap Value (QRSVX), PIMCO Short Asset Investment Inst (PAIDX). All these funds have been profiled by David and can be found on the MFO
Dashboard.
Comments
Because if you had read the Fortune and Forbes ranking articles in the early 1990s recommending DODBX, FPACX, FPURX, OAKBX, MAPOX, and/or GLRBX for the long haul and gone with them instead, you would have made considerably more money --- had you been faithful --- except for Golden, where you would have achieved the same but with a way smoother ride.
At given points since then, of course, many of us would've quailed and bailed out of Dodge, Romick, and more recently Oakmark. Easy to advise in hindsight to stay the course. My father touted Puritan to me in the 1960s, and I reacted as any good knowitall child does.
TOTAL CASH & EQUIVALENTS 6,183,252,260.14 36.25%
TOTAL NET ASSETS: 17,059,264,885.05 100.00%
Activity:
o Sold out of Anheuser-Busch, Jardine Matheson, Joy Global, Orkla, and Walgreens
Boots Alliance.
o Added to several names, including Alcoa, American Express, Bank of America, CIT
Group, and Citigroup.
o Top contributors for the quarter were Oracle, Aon, Yahoo/Alibaba pair trade, United
Technologies, and Cisco. Citigroup, an undisclosed equity position, AIG, Bank of
America, and Esterline were the largest detractors for the period.
Positioning:
o Gross exposure to equities is 60.9% and net equity exposure is 57.6%. Corporate Bond
exposure increased to 4.9%.
o Cash and cash equivalents allocation is 36.3%.
Outlook:
o We continue to research financials, high yield, cyclicals and various commodities-related
businesses.
http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/fpa-crescent-fund/q1-2016-crescent-update.pdf?sfvrsn=2
Full Schedule of !st Quater Holdings
http://fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/crescent-03-31-16-for-website.pdf?sfvrsn=2
Southern California in Early June ? F P A Investor Day on the Pacific !
http://fpafunds.cvent.com/events/a-day-with-fpa-2016/agenda-66af952dc057428fbafd4a90b856dcb7.aspx
From David Snowball
The better question is, can the fund consistently and honorably deliver on its promise to its investors; that is, to provide equity-like returns with less risk over reasonable time periods? Given that the management team is deeper, the investment process is unimpaired and its size is has become more modest, I think the answer is “yes.” Even if it can’t be “the old Crescent,” we can have some fair confidence that it’s going to be “the very good new Crescent.”
Beware the Siren Song ?