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Q&A With Doug Ramsey, Co-Manager, Leuthold Core & Leuthold Global Fund

TedTed
in Fund Discussions
FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
"Leuthold Group's Doug Ramsey Sees a Bear Market Coming"
You might have breathed a sigh of relief after stocks bottomed on Feb. 11, but the bear is getting ready to pounce again, according to Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer of Minneapolis-based Leuthold Group. Founded by the legendary Steve Leuthold, the investment-research firm has studied market tops and bottoms for decades, and its institutional research is highly regarded.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/#q=doug+ramsey+bear+market+barron's

Comments

  • David_Snowball
    A few highlights:

    Expect the S&P 500 to bottom somewhere between 1600-1700. It's about 1950 now.

    Given the length of this bear (going on 11 months) and the length of a normal bear, the bottom might occur this summer.

    The worst of overvaluation has been squeezed out. We've gone from the second highest valuation to perfectly average in a bit over a year.

    "On a smoothed-over basis, the S&P 500 is 19.5 times normalized earnings. The developed world ex-U.S. is 14.5, and emerging markets are 9.5. Europe has depressed valuations on depressed normalized earnings." Much of the risk from small caps is gone. Indeed, GMO projects small caps to return noticeably more than large caps in the next 5-7.

    For what interest that holds,

    David
  • AndyJ
    Doug Ramsey makes an important point about the Fed: Fed tightening started in 2014, and there have already been eight policy tightening moves, not the one the CNN pundits et al. recognize.
  • JunksterJunkster
    edited February 2016
    Everyone should revisit the 73-74 bear market to see how vicious bear market rallies can be. Regardless, I try to keep my opinions and the opinions of others out of my trading decisions.

    Edit: This bear market domestically seems to be all about energy. If oil prices can somehow reach and stabilize above $40 a barrel I wonder if the 2/11 may just be it.
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