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MFO Ratings Updated Through January 2016

edited February 2016 in MFO Premium
Our Premium site now reflects risk and return data through January.

It was a tough month for equity funds.

Here's quick summary table showing average fund total return for January, organized by SubType:

image

Table reflects 9,095 rated funds, oldest share class only, at least three months old, excludes money market funds. Assets under management (AUM) data reflect all share classes.

More on some specific fund observations shortly, but one of largest funds by AUM, Fidelity Select Portfolios: Biotechnology Portfolio (FBIOX), dropped a heart-stopping 27.5%.

Comments

  • FBIOX recent results remind us that PE ratios matter.
  • @ Charles forgot password for MFO Premium, requested new password, E-Mail was sent to me with temporary paasword. Try it but it doesn't work. Help!!
  • Thanks Ted!

    Just sent you new pw.

    Yeah, the account gets locked-up "for 600 seconds" when has too many attempts.

    Sorry for inconvenience.

    c
  • edited February 2016
    Some other notables with steep monthly pullbacks:

    Dodge & Cox International Stock (DODFX): -9.4% ... on top of -4.8 in Dec and -1.6 in Nov.
    T Rowe Price Growth Stock (PRGFX): -9.1
    Oakmark International I (OAKIX): -9.0
    Fidelity Growth Company (FDGRX): -10.6
    iShares MSCI Japan (EWJ): -8.2
    iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM): -6.6
    American SMALLCAP World A (SMCWX): -9.2
    T Rowe Price New Horizons (PRNHX): -9.3
    Vanguard Health Care Inv (VGHCX): -8.9
    Fidelity OTC Portfolio (FOCPX): -12.7

    On the other hand:

    Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP): +0.6%
    iShares US Preferred Stock (PFF): +1.0
    iShares TIPS Bond (TIP): +1.5
    PIMCO Income Inst (PIMIX): +0.3
    T Rowe Price New Income (PRCIX): +1.0
    iShares Core US Aggregate Bond (AGG): +1.4
    Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX): -0.1
    DoubleLine Total Return Bond I (DBLTX): +1.3
    Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Inv (VTBIX): +1.4
    PIMCO Total Return Inst (PTTRX): +1.0
    Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv (VWINX): -0.2
  • edited February 2016
    Hard times lately for our hero Bruce Berkowitz ...

    massive drawdowns and substantial under-performance these past 12 months for all his funds:

    image

    Flagship FAIRX is in fact an MFO Three Alarm fund, which means bottom quintile absolute return in its category for the past 1, 3, and 5 years.
  • edited February 2016
    The difference in FAIRX volatility between its first 7 years of existence (Cycle 4) versus the last 9 years (Cycle 5) is astounding ...

    image
  • I didn't own or follow FAIRX from the start, but didn't the fund hold a huge chunk of Berkshire Hathaway in it's early years? Could variability have increased and returns decreased since Bruce's decision to go it alone - without Buffets consistant returns? Berkowitz surely isn't the great manager he was thought to be.
  • Charles...I was looking at FAIRX yesterday, and saw the AUM was 2.8B.....wasn't it over 10 a few years ago? That's gotta hurt.

    press
  • The negative numbers get even worse, if you look year-to-date. Some popular growth funds at Price demonstrate how this bear (?) market is beginning to inflict some real pain: PRGFX -14.54; RPMGX -11.87; TRBCX -14.52; PRNHX -14.20.
  • edited February 2016
    @Lawlar...

    Yes, I know.

    Here, adding to Junkster's comments today about market seemingly headed to bear territory, as of month ending January, many U.S. Equity sectors are already down 20% or more. See the MAXDD numbers in past year performance data below (btw ... a plus sign on the Recovery metric, which represents months of drawdown, means the drawdown continues) :

    image

    Many others down more than 10%, into so=called correction territory...

    image

    And those few sectors sparred (below) seem to be headed south in February.

    image
  • edited February 2016
    @PRESSmUP...

    Yes, I remember when BB discussed possibly having to close FAIRX when it hit $25B. I believe FAIRX exceeded $20B after BB was given Fund Manager of Decade recognition by M*.
  • FAIRX was one of Morningstars' darlings for a long time. So was Longleaf Partners until it crashed and burned in 2008/2009. The Longleaf manager has a habit of picking losers, including the old GM, Dell, and more recently, I believe, Cheasapeke was a big holding.
  • I just checked on the website for Longleaf Partners and as of Dec 31st Cheasapeke Energy was a 5 percent holding, and they were showing a big prior loss in that stock. I noticed Wynn was a 7 1/2 percent position. I'll bet that's working out for them--not. I've become really skeptical towards focused funds. For that matter, I'm starting to question the reliability of most actively managed funds.
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