By defination there must be thee consecutive up days in order to declare a selling stampede to be over. As Maxwell Smart used to say in the TV series Get Smart ... "Missed it by just this much."
In checking the earnings for January ending for the S&P 500 Index TTM earnings (as reported) came in at $97.20. This is up from December ending at $94.86. The earnings outlook as we move through the year reflects improvement. I am thinking a good mile stone for the Index to be at February ending is 1990. This would compute to about a 2.5% increase for the Index during the month of February which is about the same that is expected for as reported earnings growth which are currently estimated at $99.53.
So ... Is the selling stampede over? Your guess is as good as mine. By defination, no. But, as long as the market continues to move upward, yes. I am thinking that it is over; and, by the time February ends we will better know.
This post concludes the series on the selling stampede unless something developes, in the markets, that would cause me to reopen it.
Have a good day ... and, most of all ... I wish all "Good Investing."
Comments
Good news ... As I write, the futures in the S&P 500 Index are up this morning along with oil. The Dollar is weakening. Perhaps, today will be an up day for us ... tomorrow and the next?
Equities are a bit different being more widely traded and also having run up so much from '08. I'd imagine they are due for a breather. And ... I don't think junk is a bad investment longer term. I do, however, think its fortunes are closely tied to the equity markets. I could be wrong!
As for manipulation, with collusion possibly but not individually. Unlike banks, hedge funds aren't known for colluding, they are out to get each other than work with each other.
But there is a possibility of the opposite happening, that the market manipulations by colluding banks that have been accused of (and investigated and fined for) cornering commodities derivatives trading that set commodity prices led to the unrealistic prices especially on oil earlier and that has been removed leading to a price reset. The momentum trading does the rest.
The movement is in the commodity exchanges - not here.
See: Dangling Modifiers
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dangling_modifier
"oh yeah? I got yore danglin' right 'ere!"
PS: please flag/delete if this is too off-color humor for the forum.
Nice jab job, Hank!