Today marks day number twenty two for the selling stampede. In checking the S&P 500 futures, as I write, are moderately down followed by both Greater Europe and Greater Asia also being reported down.
The two timing models that I follow reflect Cash Is King at the moment so I have no spiffs engaged at this time.
Over the weekend I ran some month ending reports on my portfolio. One interesting thing I discovered is that my hybrid funds collectively have raised their allocation to bonds. My portfolio now bubbles at 23% cash, 22% bonds, 50% stocks and 5% other according to my most recent Instant Xray analysis. Within equities I detected a slight movement from the small/mid cap styles towards large cap styles by a couple of percent.
Since my portfolio bubbles close to its target allocation(s) I plan to do nothing as we enter the week. I bought equities last month at 1922 and 1880 on the S&P 500 Index reading. I am still with my plan to buy somewhere around 1820 should the Index pullback to this mark during the near term. Should stocks continue an upward path I plan to do nothing within my portfolio until stocks become over weight in which I’ll most likely will rebalance.
In closing, it seems there have been a good number of my mutual funds that have been active in adjusting to changing market conditions, over the past couple of months, plus I have done a little buying in equities myself due to a decline in their valuation in the belief they have become somewhat oversold. I am thinking that their valuation will improve as we move through 4th Quarter Earnings reporting and on into spring.
Have a good day; and, I wish all … “Good Investing.”
Comments
"The "selling stampede" that contributed to the worst January for the Dow and S&P 500 since 2009 may have ended with the start of a two-day rally last week, Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut said Monday."
See: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/01/selling-stampede-ended-last-week-saut.html
I have linked Jeffery Saut's weekly commentary below for those interested. It's titled ... "Rich man, Poor man."
http://www.raymondjames.com/pointofview/rich-man-poor-man
Additional note: The S&P 500 Index closed today in a rounded number at 1939; and, with this, it fell short in closing up for three consecutive days thus, by my thinking, the stampede by defination continues. It will be interesting to read (or hear) what Mr. Saut writes (or says) about this.
Aren't you glad you're a long-term investor and not overly concerned about these periodic market hiccups?
Another tool for you to monitor ??
WHERE’S THE STOCK MARKET HEADED IN 2016? HERE’S HOW TO MAKE YOUR OWN FORECAST January 19, 2016
At Plimsoll, we see a muddle-through environment where earnings rebound a bit benefit from 2015’s
energy price collapse and in aggregate growing at around 6 percent for 2016. We expect the PE multiple
to contract a little— as investors begin to accept the reality of a slow-to-no growth world and begin to
understand the limitations of the world’s central banks in fighting the forces of deflation – closing the
year at around 24. If these assumptions are correct, then the resulting return for the US stock market
will be essentially flat in 2016.
The bottom line for profitable investing in this environment —as we noted in our last article— is to use
volatility as a tool to buy growth at the right price. After all, it was Warren Buffett who said: “Price is
what you pay and value is what you get.”
http://www.plimsollmarkcapital.com/files/Where's the US Stock Market Headed in 2016 01.19.16.pdf
You can learn more about the Shiller PE ratio at
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pe10ratio.asp . You can also find an up-to-date chart of the
Shiller PE ratio at http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ for future use.
http://www.plimsollmarkcapital.com/news-quarterly-commentary.html
©2015, Plimsoll Mark Capital, a division of Hartland & Co.
He uses Dow Theory, "target zones", selling stampedes, Lowry's buy and sell pressure. For example, if the Dow Theory identifies the trend as "favorable", does the selling skein have better odds of success vs. a Dow Theory "unfavorable" trend ? I have a fuzzy memory of him presenting "selling skeins" in 2008 - 2009 after the Dow theory had triggered a sell ..
Also, the Dow Theory is also "subjective" and trend changes occur when the price has fallen quite a bit % wise from the "top" ... A simple price cross vs. a moving average of SP500 can be much more definitive in gauging trend.
An order for a big slug of VWINX was made today....dipping the toes in the equity space.
With the 10 year down to 1.86, why VWINX and not VWELX?
Mona
It was mostly a decision resulting from a portfolio evaluation and swap of one conservative allocation selection for another without factoring future rates into the equation. I swapped BERIX for VWINX for a bit better current yield and more long-term consistency within the income/hybrid sleeve. This is also a part of a larger evaluation process which impacted several bond funds today, and will impact equity positions I'm thinking within the next several weeks/months.
I'm pretty happy right now with where I sit with the bond and allocation funds in the IRA. When the time comes to pull the trigger on the equity side, I'll be set. Or...that's my plan.
Everyone needs a plan, right?
press
I've got a couple of old used ones that you can have real cheap! You might have better luck with them than I did.
That reminds me of a line from Groucho...Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others.
I really don't see a bottom yet in oil but I've never played the patch without getting my hands dirty (and most everything else) so WTF do I know. That said, I'm really looking at grabbing some XOM at this point. It's yielding 3.75% and is the one gas card I have in my wallet.
and so it goes,
rono