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Be Smart. Don't Try to Time the Market: Joe Granville
The referenced article about Joe Granville recalls a dormant blast from the past.
In the early 1980s, I attended a Granville investment lecture in a downtown San Bernardino, CA auditorium. The auditorium was huge and so was the excited crowd. Given his earlier market forecasting successes, the size and enthusiasm of the mob was not unexpected. He sold many subscriptions that day.
Granville did not disappoint. He was the ultimate showman. I don’t remember the details of his technical analyses oriented presentation, but it was mostly Bear in character. Unknown at that time, his forecasting acumen had already abandoned him.
His long range Bear stance was the beginning of the end for him, although he remained a popular TV guest and published a market news and forecasting letter for decades afterward. Not too many folks, including market professionals, kept accuracy scores in that timeframe. That’s also true to a lesser extent these days.
In his personal appearances Granville mesmerized his faithful followers. He became famous for his entry stunts. In the San Bernardino presentation that I saw, his entry was nondescript. But during his talk he did wow the audience by pulling down his pants revealing spindly legs and underpants that had stock market symbols on them.
Memory is a funny and unpredictable thing. I don’t remember any of his technical analyses methods although I used a technical approach (later terminated) at that time. I only remember his outrageous “pants” incident.
Given his failed predictions in subsequent years, it’s amazing how popular Joe Granville remained. His fame exceeded his skill and talent.
It shouldn’t surprise me all that much given that many mutual funds that have performed poorly for extended periods retain a loyal supporter base. We resist change even after a bad decision; admitting a faulty decision is a daunting challenge. I’m sure the behavioral wiz-kids have much to say on this subject.
Market timing is indeed hazardous duty. Abby Joseph Cohen’s career exploded with a badly timed forecast in 2008.
Comments
The referenced article about Joe Granville recalls a dormant blast from the past.
In the early 1980s, I attended a Granville investment lecture in a downtown San Bernardino, CA auditorium. The auditorium was huge and so was the excited crowd. Given his earlier market forecasting successes, the size and enthusiasm of the mob was not unexpected. He sold many subscriptions that day.
Granville did not disappoint. He was the ultimate showman. I don’t remember the details of his technical analyses oriented presentation, but it was mostly Bear in character. Unknown at that time, his forecasting acumen had already abandoned him.
His long range Bear stance was the beginning of the end for him, although he remained a popular TV guest and published a market news and forecasting letter for decades afterward. Not too many folks, including market professionals, kept accuracy scores in that timeframe. That’s also true to a lesser extent these days.
In his personal appearances Granville mesmerized his faithful followers. He became famous for his entry stunts. In the San Bernardino presentation that I saw, his entry was nondescript. But during his talk he did wow the audience by pulling down his pants revealing spindly legs and underpants that had stock market symbols on them.
Memory is a funny and unpredictable thing. I don’t remember any of his technical analyses methods although I used a technical approach (later terminated) at that time. I only remember his outrageous “pants” incident.
Given his failed predictions in subsequent years, it’s amazing how popular Joe Granville remained. His fame exceeded his skill and talent.
It shouldn’t surprise me all that much given that many mutual funds that have performed poorly for extended periods retain a loyal supporter base. We resist change even after a bad decision; admitting a faulty decision is a daunting challenge. I’m sure the behavioral wiz-kids have much to say on this subject.
Market timing is indeed hazardous duty. Abby Joseph Cohen’s career exploded with a badly timed forecast in 2008.
Best Wishes.