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Dear Ted, Thank you for the link and all your other fine ones. From this piece ... "For example, in December 2009, Eisenstadt forecasted a 20% return for calendar 2010. The Wilshire 5000 actually came remarkably close, gaining 17.2% for the year, after dividends ..... One year later, in December 2010, Eisenstadt’s model was forecasting a double-digit gain for the market in the first half of 2011, which translated into the S&P 500 rising to the 1,360 area and the Dow to around 13,000."
Fund prospectuses normally carry a warning to the effect: "Past performance is no guarantee of future results". I'd favor a similar warning posted next to prognosticators like Mr. Eisenstadt.
Re the prediction, just don't know. I tend to be somewhat bullish long term 10+ years (provided you select good funds) but recognize that short term anything can happen. Lived through enough "surprises" not to get too giddy when things are going well. Investor psychology being what it is, strong markets tend to pull in more assets until they tumble. This tendency can work to our advantage, and Skeeter for one uses market fluctuations to his benefit. I recognize the dilemma all of us face with these historically low interest rates and it's my belief that, more than anything else, is fueling the market. Like all (good?) things it will end. Regards, hank
Dear Hank: I first started paying attention to Sam Eisenstadt when he was the chief guru at Value Line in the seventies. Past forecasts are no guarantee of future correct predications, but Sam comes a close as it gets. Regards, Ted
But of course, didn't everyone know, now ”It is ridiculous to be bearish”! At least according to Thomas Lee, the chief equity strategist at JP Morgan. He says the S&P could even take out its record high of 1565.........although, don't ask about his track record.
I prefer Mr. Larry Fink's pronouncment from a few months ago that 100% equity was the way to go. When I start to see that trend amongst the investing public; I will be ready to pull the sell trigger, eh? 'Course, I suspect he can stand to lose or risk a bit more money than this house and still have enough remaining for a very nice vacation.
When these articles are lurking 'stocks reaching all time high', I am reluctant to stay and play. Probably happy trigger if market start to head south loosing > 15 or 20%
Comments
Fund prospectuses normally carry a warning to the effect: "Past performance is no guarantee of future results". I'd favor a similar warning posted next to prognosticators like Mr. Eisenstadt.
Re the prediction, just don't know. I tend to be somewhat bullish long term 10+ years (provided you select good funds) but recognize that short term anything can happen. Lived through enough "surprises" not to get too giddy when things are going well. Investor psychology being what it is, strong markets tend to pull in more assets until they tumble. This tendency can work to our advantage, and Skeeter for one uses market fluctuations to his benefit. I recognize the dilemma all of us face with these historically low interest rates and it's my belief that, more than anything else, is fueling the market. Like all (good?) things it will end. Regards, hank
Regards,
Ted
The Wall Street Ranter
'Course, I suspect he can stand to lose or risk a bit more money than this house and still have enough remaining for a very nice vacation.
Regards,
Catch