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Gundlach Says Time Is Not Right For Federal Reserve To Raise Rates
FYI: Jeffrey Gundlach, whose $51.3 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund has outperformed 99% of peers over the past five years, said the Federal Reserve may come to regret raising U.S. interest rates amid signs of a fragile economy and a crumbling credit market. Regards, Ted http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20151209/FREE/151209917?template=printart
Of course not. Bond funds will go down. Lot of lame-o's like me who don't understand bond funds will see "rate hike", equate it to lower prices for all bond funds and sell some Doubleline fund shares.
Whatever the Fed will do today it will regret later...NOT. Who is the "fed"? It is a safety net for bankers. Who "are" the fed? Greenspam. Burnanke. These guys have no regrets.
Jeff dear, it is okay. You have beaten 99% of your peers, you will continue to beat at least 79% percent of your peers. Let the fed raise interest rates. I own your floating rate fund.
Doubleline Total Return fund has been shorten the duration of its holding in the past 12 months. With an AUM over $50B, it is a much more difficult task than $50M.
I think the hike will be small (25 base points) and incremental afterward. If the market cannot handle this level of rate hike, what does it says about the market itself?
I apologize in advance for this interruption in a "Fund Discussion".
This may not be very investment savvy but I am getting a bit tired of not raising the rates following the perpetual tease of "raising the rate". Now all I want is for them to raise the rates, good or bad - I don't care, so that we can get on with it. If it will bring the end of the world so be it; it might prove less boring. If no rate raise is feasible, quit talking about it. This has been going on for years now. I don't even know if not doing it or doing it is already baked in at this point.
The Fed has talked this one up, so it'd be surprising if they don't move now.
But all the blather about it over the past years is coming mainly from the financial press, most of whom have never had any idea what they're talking about.
Interesting that today the news headlines are that Gundlach says there is a 30% chance of a recession in the next year. Put another way, there is a 70% chance of no recession next year. Guess it is all how you want to spin it.
I think The Fed is raising rates because then when recession hits (there is always a hindsight opinion and recession when announced really started much earlier), they can lower the rate again.
I am very skeptical about the competency of the people who make these decisions. I do believe they know something we don't. We are about at the boom end of the boom-bust cycle. I could make the claim we have 70% chance of recession and not 30%, but I'm not Gundlach so I don't get any press.
Next buying opportunity is 2017. Assuming WW III does not start by then. Meanwhile, stocks, bonds, gold, oil, everything is going to languish. Imagine its not me writing this. Imagine its someone on CNBC. You would instantly believe me.
Comments
Whatever the Fed will do today it will regret later...NOT. Who is the "fed"? It is a safety net for bankers. Who "are" the fed? Greenspam. Burnanke. These guys have no regrets.
Jeff dear, it is okay. You have beaten 99% of your peers, you will continue to beat at least 79% percent of your peers. Let the fed raise interest rates. I own your floating rate fund.
I think the hike will be small (25 base points) and incremental afterward. If the market cannot handle this level of rate hike, what does it says about the market itself?
This may not be very investment savvy but I am getting a bit tired of not raising the rates following the perpetual tease of "raising the rate". Now all I want is for them to raise the rates, good or bad - I don't care, so that we can get on with it. If it will bring the end of the world so be it; it might prove less boring. If no rate raise is feasible, quit talking about it. This has been going on for years now. I don't even know if not doing it or doing it is already baked in at this point.
But all the blather about it over the past years is coming mainly from the financial press, most of whom have never had any idea what they're talking about.
I am very skeptical about the competency of the people who make these decisions. I do believe they know something we don't. We are about at the boom end of the boom-bust cycle. I could make the claim we have 70% chance of recession and not 30%, but I'm not Gundlach so I don't get any press.
Next buying opportunity is 2017. Assuming WW III does not start by then. Meanwhile, stocks, bonds, gold, oil, everything is going to languish. Imagine its not me writing this. Imagine its someone on CNBC. You would instantly believe me.