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High Yield Munis holding up well versus High Yield Corp Bonds
Holding up well a bit misleading as they are more than just holding up. They are beating most all the equity index and category returns as well as leading the pack in Bondville. Some of the better managed open end junk munis are up 4% to 5% YTD. And that is on top of last year's gain in the high teens. The junk corporates (ex short term junk) are down around 2.5% through today with several down more than 4%. Hope the pain in the corporates gets much, much worse because they will be setting up for a double digit annual gain somewhere down the road. How far down that road I haven't a clue.
@Junkster Oh yeah, let's have a little rock and roll. So far, a very conventional deterioration, IMO. All that's left is the "contagion effect." Unless a black swan happens by, HY muni should hang in there o.k., though I presently have no chips on that square.
OIL SPILL http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-08/year-of-distress-for-debt-burdened-oil-firms-just-got-even-worse “I can’t see an average mutual fund stepping into energy high yield at these levels,” said Steven Azarbad, chief investment officer at Maglan Capital, a New York-based distressed hedge fund. “This is really a distressed investing market.” He said the “scramble for liquidity” was such that investors “are becoming less sensitive to price. People just want to get out."[my bold]
Ah, a tune with a familiar melody...... get ready for the "rousing" chorus? You say goodbye, and I say hello, hello I don't know why you say goodbye, I say hello. https://youtu.be/rblYSKz_VnI
heezsafe, a 0.75% to 1% decline from highs and I am out. Will reload depending on market action. Why are you not taking a bow for your post below a few months back on the highly touted MLPs?
Another really, really ugly day in the junk corporate market. My worry is a credit crisis in this market could spread to the junk muni market if only because of guilt by association. Also, oil weakness could also impact the muni credits of some areas in the oil patch if mass layoffs ensue. I mentioned my stop above so always have an exit point be you a trader or even investor.
Another really, really ugly day in the junk corporate market. My worry is a credit crisis in this market could spread to the junk muni market if only because of guilt by association. Also, oil weakness could also impact the muni credits of some areas in the oil patch if mass layoffs ensue. I mentioned my stop above so always have an exit point be you a trader or even investor.
That is possible. The only question is has the shale oil revenue been spent/borrowed against by municipalities?
Dex, why I hate and never trade the ETFs. The junk munis ETs (HYD and HYMB) suddenly took a big hit late today (and on extraordinary super high volume) Must be some news? There is usually a one day lag between the open end and ETFs so will sell part of my open ends today. It may be much ado about nothing but will just buy back in if that is the case.
Dex, why I hate and never trade the ETFs. The junk munis ETs (HYD and HYMB) suddenly took a big hit late today (and on extraordinary super high volume) Must be some news? There is usually a one day lag between the open end and ETFs so will sell part of my open ends today. It may be much ado about nothing but will just buy back in if that is the case.
HYD Yes but something about that volume - Yahoo 2.1M, Google 113K Avg vol according to Yahoo 340K There could have been some sort of screw up.
MUB, though, was up, and on greater than avg. volume, but nothing like the HYD volume anomaly (if Yahoo & M* are correct). Something specific to HY munis, about, say, private activity bonds or Puerto Rico? Tax selling after Monday's dividend pay? The HYD NAV was actually up a couple of ticks.
Edit: normal, even a bit slow, trading in HYD today, Thursday ... neither price nor NAV moving much at all.
MUB, though, was up, and on greater than avg. volume, but nothing like the HYD volume anomaly (if Yahoo & M* are correct). Something specific to HY munis, about, say, private activity bonds or Puerto Rico? Tax selling after Monday's dividend pay? The HYD NAV was actually up a couple of ticks.
Edit: normal, even a bit slow, trading in HYD today, Thursday ... neither price nor NAV moving much at all.
One of my dumber moves yesterday costing me almost $2000 in lost profits.
@Junkster Hey, you cut that out right now. You didn't lose profits, you just missed profits you otherwise would have had. Second guessing yourself like that will just mess with your head and diminish your powers. Sometimes pretty good has to be good enough, ya know?
J, I'd call that protecting accumulated profits, and I have my own reasons for wanting to call it that - this week, for selling DBL as it started heading into serious premium-land and then watching it get more and more serious for days afterward.
Still no explanation that I can find about the HYD price action ... If anybody saw anything on that, plz chime in.
Comments
OIL SPILL
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-08/year-of-distress-for-debt-burdened-oil-firms-just-got-even-worse
“I can’t see an average mutual fund stepping into energy high yield at these levels,” said Steven Azarbad, chief investment officer at Maglan Capital, a New York-based distressed hedge fund. “This is really a distressed investing market.” He said the “scramble for liquidity” was such that investors “are becoming less sensitive to price. People just want to get out."[my bold]
Ah, a tune with a familiar melody...... get ready for the "rousing" chorus?
You say goodbye, and I say hello, hello
I don't know why you say goodbye, I say hello.
https://youtu.be/rblYSKz_VnI
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/69515/#Comment_69515
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/614-4th-St-W-Williston-ND-58801/114503567_zpid/
Yes but something about that volume - Yahoo 2.1M, Google 113K
Avg vol according to Yahoo 340K
There could have been some sort of screw up.
Similar story for HYMB
Edit: normal, even a bit slow, trading in HYD today, Thursday ... neither price nor NAV moving much at all.
HYD is down .23 from its last high
Still no explanation that I can find about the HYD price action ... If anybody saw anything on that, plz chime in.