Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
The Breakfast Briefing: What To Expect From Earnings In 2016
I'm thinking as reported earnings are going to increase on a TTM basis by about six to eight percent over the current year from about the ($96.00 range) to about the ($104.00 range) for 2016. According to S&P reported earnings for the S&P 500 Index for 2014 came in at $102.31.
Is it not interesting how most forward estimates failed to materialize and missed their original mark by being revised downward as we moved through 2015? And, are actually currently back of their 2014 finishing number!
However, I am thinking 2016 reported earnings will be better than those of 2015. Again, I'm thinking, there will be about a six to eight percent increase in reported earnings over those of 2015.
Where the S&P 500 Index finishes 2016 will depend on how much investors are willing to pay for earnings. I am not expecting much ... and, project a fifty two week high to reach somewhere perhaps around the 2240-2250-2260 range. This should keep the TTM P/E Ratio somewhere around the 21.5 range ... and, still a little overvalued by my thinking based upon the Rule of Twenty.
Comments
Is it not interesting how most forward estimates failed to materialize and missed their original mark by being revised downward as we moved through 2015? And, are actually currently back of their 2014 finishing number!
However, I am thinking 2016 reported earnings will be better than those of 2015. Again, I'm thinking, there will be about a six to eight percent increase in reported earnings over those of 2015.
Where the S&P 500 Index finishes 2016 will depend on how much investors are willing to pay for earnings. I am not expecting much ... and, project a fifty two week high to reach somewhere perhaps around the 2240-2250-2260 range. This should keep the TTM P/E Ratio somewhere around the 21.5 range ... and, still a little overvalued by my thinking based upon the Rule of Twenty.