Howdy,
Again, a thank you to all who post the links and also start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around..... Speaking of looking around ! I can with clarity. I note this as I have had a 2nd eye lens implant within a month's time. Don't know about the sometimes discussed "all seeing" third eye. That one seems to be without problems most of the time...:):):) Back to the lens implant to discard the cataract burdened eyes. Will these procedures help with investments decisions? I can not say at this time; but the previous frustration with the ability to properly see all that we should read regarding investments surely must become a positive. I had chosen to write this week regarding this surgery and technology; but this will have to find another day. A small side effect of the numerous eye drops I must use for several weeks, four times a day; is drowsiness. This should only be a concern for this next week. None the less, further notes about investments with this write are at the near limit. I have added a few blips related to our portfolio and market observations at the below SELLs/BUYs and Portfolio Thoughts.
I have retained the following links for those who may choose to do their own holdings comparison against the fund types noted.
This 1st link to Bloomberg is for their list of balanced funds; although I don't always agree with the placement of fund styles in their categories.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?Sector=888&pid=invest_mutualfunds&ListBy=YTD&Term=1These next two links are for conservative and moderate fund leaders YTD, per MSN.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/topfundresults.asp?Symbol=$HF&Category=CAhttp://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/topfundresults.asp?Category=MA&Type=&symbol=$HFSuch are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh?
Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense.
Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK:
---All of FCVSX, FFGCX and a portion of FSAGX were sold and the proceeds moved to FTBFX. May in March? Okay, you're asking why these? Fair question, indeed. FCVSX and FFGCX have had decent runs, and nice YTD's. FSAGX is a bit more on the rocky path right now. Our house is not assured that there are not more investment sparks nearby; which may continue upward pressure on the $ which would likely surpress commodities and the metals. The same applies to the convertible securities sector; although our other equity holdings would also be exposed to down moves. We don't move monies around very often; and we may be off the track with these changes, but this is where we are for now.
A reflection upon the links above; we attempt to establish a "benchmark" for our portfolio to help us "see" how our funds are performing. Aside from viewing many funds within the balanced/flexible funds rankings (the above links), a quick and dirty group of 4 funds we watch for benchmarking are the following:
***Note: these YTD's per M*
VWINX ....YTD = + 3.1% - .21 week
PRPFX ....YTD = + 6.1% - .43 week
SIRRX .....YTD = + 1.8% + .0 week
HSTRX ....YTD = + .49% - .32 week
None of these 4 are twins to our holdings, but we do watch these as a type of rough guage.
Portfolio Thoughts:Our holdings had a
- .18 % move this past week. Greece may be given the old credit card rework; but all of the holders of debt are still in place; just wearing bond clothing made of a different fabric. Some CDS (Credit Default Swaps) will be trigged by losses on Greek bonds. Soon enough we will discover whether these psuedo insurance contracts written among bond holders and those stating they will cover losses are worth the electronic pages the words are noted upon. Between our Federal Reserve system and the European bank system; a form of what I will name as "halograhic" money has been formed. I suspect if one tries to touch the monies; that one's hands would merely pass through the image of what appears to be real money. These monies appear to mostly trapped within a tight circle of circulation; rotating among the central banks, the state banks and whomever may be the holders of government, state or soverign bonds. How much of this hot, halographic money is actually moving out into the consumer public is probably anyone's good guess on any given day. Where and when will all of this protective money find its landing place? So, many global and the state banks within countries are in place to note that their balance sheets are better. I don't know better than what? Also in the mix is the continued large amounts of bonds being issued by and for, everyone and his brother. One can not argue that bonds do indeed have a place in the public company sector allowing a business to raise monies for operations and/or expansion. Based upon some writings over the last six months; it appears that much of the bond issuance by emerging market governments or companies has been the result of European banks not willing or able to provide traditional loans; as their exposure to non-performing bonds is already too high; and I would suspect these banks really don't have the kind of balance sheets that one would hope for from a well capitalized bank. It appears that many of the European banks still have too much junk on the books; and they ran, did not walk for big pieces of cheap money when the ECB and friends opened up the LTRO halographic money doors, a second time at a 1% borrow rate over a 3 year period. "Such a deal I have for you"; as the old saying goes.
All of the new, cheap money would not be unlike our house having a large outstanding mortgage, the current house value being well under the remaining cost of the mortgage and being offered 2 new lines of credit against the value of the house. I take the money gladly at 1% interest and continue to pay down the mortgage. At least that is what all parties involved are hoping will happen. 'Course, in the fine print of the new credit line; one also discovers that some payment is also expected to be made against other underwater mortgages in the neighborhood. Credit, credit everywhere. Will it, the money; find its way into the public sector for spending? I sure don't know, but will presume those on the issue end sure hope so. Whether the global public continues to deleverage or spend a bit more into the economies is a most critical consideration going forward.
Bond prices at least relative to the U.S. Treasury 30 and 10 year areas have had a bit of upward yield creep over the past few weeks. The 30 year area is seeing continued downward price moves. This is not killing any broadbased bond fund holdings in my opinion; but is none the less, a movement I continue to monitor more today than six months ago. Some yet unknown days, weeks or months into the future; may find such a saturation of bonds of all flavors, that there will not be enough buyers; from either public (governments) or the private citizen. I do not know that this point would also indicate the buying of equities to replace bonds. Perhaps nothing more than a sideways and stalled equity market(s) finding the big traders swapping the ups and downs against the best laid plans of their computers algorithms. A bit like recent markets.
Enough blabber from this person...................
The old Funds Boat is at anchor, riding in the small waves and watching the weather. To the high praise of MFO and the members, it is very difficult to find a topic to note here that has not been placed into the discussion boards. Excellence, as usual.
---Below is what M* x-ray has attempted to sort for our portfolio, as of March 9, 2012---
U.S.Stocks 10.5%
Foreign Stocks 6.8%
Bonds 78.5% ***
Other 4.2%
Not Classified 0.00%
***about 35% of the bond total are high yield category (equity related cousins)
---This % listing is kinda generic, by fund "name"
-Investment grade bond funds 26.8%
-Diversified bond funds 19.8%
-HY/HI bond funds 23.2%
-Total bond funds 17.8%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds 4.3%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 8.1% This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
APOIX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
TEGBX Templeton Global (load waived)
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
FDLSX Fidelity Select Leisure
FSAGX Fidelity Select Precious Metals
RNCOX RiverNorth Core Opportunity (bond/equity)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
FDVLX Fidelity Value
FSLVX Fidelity Lg. Cap Value
FLPSX Fidelity Low Price Stock
MACSX Matthews Asia Growth-Income
Comments
Hope the new optics are performing flawlessly. I would be interested in your future write up on this experience. An opthamologist that goes to my gym told me he could do a lense replacement that would correct my vision both near and far. I do not have any cataracts yet, and while intrigued with getting rid of the specs, I have always been skeptical or maybe a little scared of these procedures.