Hi Guys,
In an earlier post, I commented on an extended local impact from far away terrorist inspired attacks. At least for some period afterward, we change our daily behavior.
In that earlier post, I noted that there are aftershocks.
In particular, I observed: “Terror acts do have a residual impact. Recovery does occur, but time is needed. For many months after the attack, air travel was measurably down while substitute auto travel was up. That logical decision resulted in a secondary 9/11 incident casualty multiplier impact because the incremental auto travel increased the death toll over what air travel would have produced.”
The odds that contrast auto travel death rates against equivalent air travel death rates tell the story. Sometimes these odds are summarized on a per miles traveled basis; sometimes they are reported on a lifetime basis. A recent National Safety Council reported the following odds on a lifetime standard: 1 in 98 for auto travel, but only 1 in 7.178 for flying.
The approaching Thanksgiving season provides a natural test case. Lower gasoline prices will favor auto travel this Thanksgiving holiday. If past history is any indicator, additional folks will decide for auto travel because of the terrorist’s increased activity. It will be interesting to see the airline traffic patterns this season in comparison to the statistics registered most recently.
My anecdotal evidence that I experienced after the 9/11 incident suggests a major downward impact on air travel. We’ll know the real answer in a few days.
Please enjoy a Happy Thanksgiving. I will.
Best Regards.
