FYI: Based on 30-day Fed fund futures prices, the CME Group estimates a 74% probability the Fed will raise rates in December after keeping them steady for years. From a historical perspective, the table below shows the dates when the Federal Reserve began to raise rates following a period of keeping rates steady. If the Fed raises rates on December 16, December 16 would be added to the list below.
In this article, we will walk through all of the periods listed in the table above beginning with 1983. Before we begin that process, it is important to put some context around the market’s thought process when the Fed shifts policy from “no change” to “increasing rates”. When the Fed is getting ready to shift policy or they have recently shifted policy, the financial markets are continually asking countless questions, including:
Regards,
Ted
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