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TTI is short for Trend Tracking Index (hopefully you didn't lose too much sleep).
Here's a bit about how this TTI in the Q&A section of Ulli's site:
"Q: Ulli: Thanks for your online free service, it is appreciated. My question has to do with using a 39 week simple moving average. I noticed that when the chart is looked upon at the end of the week when it is updated that it is easy to see the price relation to the moving average. You report often where the TTI is in the middle of the week for instance my question is how do you know what the weekly moving average number is until the end of the week? I would appreciate your input. (7/31/2015)
A: Larry: The answer is simple. I update the TTI prices daily to not only show the changes but to also to be prepared for a trend line crossing and the resulting ‘Buy’ or ‘Sell’ signal.
Since I use a weekly moving average (M/A), that number is only calculated every Friday, and I usually have it updated/corrected in the ETF/Mutual Fund Tracker by about 6 PM PST. It remains the same until the following Friday when it gets recalculated again."
Okay so is the TTI some "proprietary index" he is following? Or it indeed the 39-week SMA which he manages to calculate every day instead of end of each week.
I did do some reading this morning and his track record seems impressive. I went to portfoliovisualizer and used 39 week MA, and that too gave good result.
I don't know how Ulli came up with his TTI system. However, there's any number of ways one could develop a long-term market-timing system with moving average(s), curve-fit to a stock index for a given period of years of price data. One could use intersections of an MA with the price line, or crossings of 2 MAs themselves, all based on either daily, weekly, or even monthly data. Further, the MAs could be SMAs or EMAs.
I don't know how Ulli came up with his TTI system. However, there's any number of ways one could develop a long-term market-timing system with moving average(s), curve-fit to a stock index for a given period of years of price data. One could use intersections of an MA with the price line, or crossings of 2 MAs themselves, all based on either daily, weekly, or even monthly data. Further, the MAs could be SMAs or EMAs.
Yeah, but my point is he seems to be suggesting "When my TTI says BUY, look for funds above the cutline" and the cutline is 39 Week SMA. I'm reading this as, "Buy the funds that are strong" or "Buy the fund as long as they are above the cutline" or "Best to avoid funds that are below the cutline" OR...whatever. Why the farce of the TTI then, is my question.
Let's see when he generates a signal whether it matches with 39-week SMA crossover.
Comments
Seems like a simple trend following idea to me. I'm not saying it's bad. I'm just saying use 39 Week SMA.
Darn it! I'm going to lay awake all night trying to figure out what the heck is this TTI.
Here's a bit about how this TTI in the Q&A section of Ulli's site:
"Q: Ulli: Thanks for your online free service, it is appreciated. My question has to do with using a 39 week simple moving average. I noticed that when the chart is looked upon at the end of the week when it is updated that it is easy to see the price relation to the moving average. You report often where the TTI is in the middle of the week for instance my question is how do you know what the weekly moving average number is until the end of the week? I would appreciate your input. (7/31/2015)
A: Larry: The answer is simple. I update the TTI prices daily to not only show the changes but to also to be prepared for a trend line crossing and the resulting ‘Buy’ or ‘Sell’ signal.
Since I use a weekly moving average (M/A), that number is only calculated every Friday, and I usually have it updated/corrected in the ETF/Mutual Fund Tracker by about 6 PM PST. It remains the same until the following Friday when it gets recalculated again."
theetfbully.com/questions-answers/
I did do some reading this morning and his track record seems impressive. I went to portfoliovisualizer and used 39 week MA, and that too gave good result.
Wondering if we found magic number
Let's see when he generates a signal whether it matches with 39-week SMA crossover.