FYI: The S&P 500 is now less than 1% from the all-time closing high it made back in May. It has been nearly six months now since the last high was made, and a breakout to new highs will be seen as a very positive development by technicians. We expect this resistance level to be very stiff, and given how overbought the index is as it sets up for a test, it could take a few tries to finally break through. If the S&P 500 closes the year at it's May 21st all time high of 2130. it will be up 3.47% for all of 2105. The Linkster's projection is a little higher, with a 6.70% 2015 return.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/sp-500-closing-in-on-all-time-highs/According to CXO Advisory, the S&P 500 since 1990 has had 17 positive days and 8 negative trading days in November, and 20 positives and only 5 negative trading days in December.
Comments
Ted, it is nice to see you posting again; and, with this, I hope you are feeling better. I can assure you that you were indeed missed.
I have mixed feelings about your price target for the 500 Index (2059 X 6.7%=2200). Currently, I feel stocks in the Index are richely priced with a current TTM P/E Ratio of 22.7 and on forward estimates at 17.9. What concerns me is the spread between reported (TTM) and estimates is better than 25% with Friday's market close price of 2079 (October 30) for the Index. With this, I am thinking forward estimates will be getting revised downward and at your price target of 2200 then this puts stocks as expensive at yearend and vunerable for correction as they are today assuming earnings do improve and stay in step with your anticipated price improvement. If your anticipated price target is achieved then I hope earnings estimates come through to support this price target; and, that they do not get revised downward so the beat rate, by analyst, looks good for 4Q2015 reporting. I think the average investor is, at times, mislead by beat rate reporting not knowing that this most often happens as a product of analyst's making revised downward earnings expectations up to and sometimes just before companies report. Thus, the beat rate continues. I personally do not see much continued upside in the markets until corporate earnings and revenue improve. This could continue to be a challenge with a strong dollar and a rising interest rate environment on the horizon. I have no plans this year to make a special investment position for an anticipated fall stock market rally because I think stocks, as a whole, are currently overbought.
With this, I am Ieft pondering; and, standing pat with my portfolio's current asset allocation of about 25% cash, 20% income, 50% equity and 5% other assets as of my last Instant Xray report (October 30, 2015).
Again, it is nice to see you posting.
I sincerely wish you the very best; and, take care of yourself.
Old_Skeet
In my retirement portfolio, at one point I was completely out. I'm at 60% allocation now. I might have mentioned I do my own ANALysis to come up with short, mid, long term models which tell me whether to be 33%, 66%, 100% invested, and I follow them blindly using index funds / target funds in my retirement accounts.
Regarding forecasts for the S&P - I haven't a clue where it will be in one year or in five years.
But I don't think the world will end anytime soon.
Regards
"So far, about three-quarters of the S&P 500 have reported results, with profits down 3.1 percent on a share-weighted basis, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. This would be the biggest quarterly drop in earnings since the third quarter 2009, and the second straight quarter of profit declines. Earnings growth turned negative for the first time in six years in the second quarter this year."
The trend is your friend? Ummm, which one would that be? Eni Meeni Miney Mo.