Maybe things seem more uncertain this year. But, talking about the seasonal tendency, Mark Hulbert writes: "Odds are that the Halloween Indicator will be especially good for the stock market this year. That’s encouraging news, since the Halloween Indicator already carries decent odds of success. But when the stock market is riding a wave of momentum into Halloween — as it most definitely is this year, including another 200+ point rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.79% on Thursday — then the odds become even better."
From:
marketwatch.com/story/the-best-six-months-for-stocks-is-about-to-begin-2015-10-23?dist=beforebell
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Backward-looking is more precise. Here's a news-cap from last August 24: http://www.businessinsider.com/closing-bell-august-24-2015-8. On that day the S&P fell to 1893. Friday it closed at 2075, a gain of 9.6% over two months. Anyone who sold the index, or funds closely tied to it, on that gloomy day in late August essentially forfeitted a 9.6% investment gain. And in an era of 1-2% bond returns, a 9.6% gain (or loss) is nothing to sneeze at.
Not only stocks. Many risk-on assets (including energy, gold funds and REITS) have experienced double-digit gains since August 24.