FYI: Today’s Nonfarm Payrolls number was a big disappointment, coming in at 142,000 total jobs added versus 201,000 expected. Over the last few months, the breadth of jobs gains has slowed, as shown in the chart below, which shows green when a sector adds jobs or red when a sector loses jobs. Grey indicates no change.
REgards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/manufacturing-sector-slows-down-nfp/
Comments
Today’s payrolls report from Washington is ugly. The crowd was expecting that today’s jobs report from the Labor Department would show that US companies added 200,000 positions in September. Instead, today’s release shows that private payrolls increased by a weak 118,000. The good news is that the year-over-year trend is still ahead by a solid 2.2% through last month. Unfortunately, the annual pace continues to decelerate.
Adding insult to injury, the initially reported August rise of 140,000 for private payrolls was revised sharply lower to a tepid 100,000 advance. As a result, the aggregate gain in private-sector employment for August and September is a soft 218,000—the smallest two-month increase in over three years.
The caveat is that employment data tends to be a lagging indicator and so waiting for a clear signal with these numbers alone is asking for trouble. But there’s still a case for mild optimism from other corners, including initial jobless claims, which continue to align with a relatively upbeat outlook for the labor market and the economy overall (see yesterday’s post for details).http://www.capitalspectator.com/us-jobless-claims-rise-but-remain-close-to-multi-decade-lows/
Meantime, a broad review of economic and financial indicators still points to modest growth for the US. But let’s be clear: even an optimistic view of the near-term must recognize that growth is slowing. That’s not in doubt. The mystery is whether the deceleration continues. If it does, a clear recession signal is lurking, probably at some point in the fourth quarter. We’re not there yet in terms of the September profile, but the US is flirting with the possibility that a contraction could start soon.
http://www.capitalspectator.com/big-miss-for-us-private-payrolls-in-september/
U.S. Payroll Gain Disappoints Again
From the payroll employment survey, the 142,000 rise in payrolls reflected a decline of 9,000 in manufacturing payrolls, which followed an 18,000 August drop. These were the first negative readings since mid-2013. Construction employment rose 8,000 which was improved from the prior two months gains, but still was well below the double-digit increases dating back through 2013. Mining employment fell another 10,300 (-11.7% y/y), continuing its year-long slide.
From the household employment survey, unemployment rate stability at 5.1% reflected a 236,000 decline (+1.5% y/y) in employment accompanied by a 350,000 drop (+0.6% y/y) in the labor force. The labor force participation rate declined to 62.4%, the lowest level since October 1977. Growth in the number of workers not in the labor force of 2.2% y/y was slightly below the growth of the last several years.
The average duration of unemployment nudged up m/m to 28.4 weeks, but was down from 39.4 weeks in 2011 and 2012. Seventeen percent of workers were out of work for 52 weeks or longer compared to 31.4% in 2011.
The unemployment rate amongst those without a high school diploma was 7.7%, while for high school graduates with no college it was 5.5%. For those with some college or an associates degree, it was 4.4% and for college graduates, the jobless rate was 2.5%.
Average hourly earnings remained unchanged, though the August increase was raised to 0.4% from 0.3%. Expectations had been for a 0.2% rise. September's earnings figure was the weakest figure since a slight decline in December. It left the three-month change stable at 2.3% (AR)
http://www.haver.com