Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
What's the 10-year telling us? Very little I suspect. But a little ...
It says,
1. Trend persistency is alive and well (borrowing one of Junkster's phrases).
2. There's an aging population (pushing people into annuities and bond investments viewed as "safe").
3. There's fiscal uncertainty in the U.S. (the battle over the budget and a bunch of fruit-cakes running for President).
4. There's a slowdown in China (Surprise! Economies don't always grow exponentially and markets sometimes correct.)
That should cover it.
Crash's link is on Jeff Gundlach's forebodings about a rate hike (around the time of the last FOMC meeting). Fair enough. But I wouldn't read a tremendous amount into it. Economists seem about equally divided on the question. And, Gundlach does have a dog in the fight - so to speak.
Central banks are still concerned with the nasty "deflation". Euroland just went negative for "inflation" from a report a few days ago.........correct me if I am wrong. South Korea reported today a +.6% inflation rate. Lets see/think............Norway just cut rates again, yes? India did a rate cut the first part of this week, I recall. Although India is benefiting muchly from inexpensive crude pricing.
As a bond investor over the years, I remain concerned about the amount of issuance in high yield, corp. and gov't. bonds. HY in the energy sector is already getting wacked, the M&A issues bonds every which way on the cheap in order to buy "something", just "anything". And centrals banks worldwide have so many issues flowing around at really low yields............ I suspect the words "what the hell we gonna do when no one wants these anymore?" have been spoken at more than one meeting.
The intra-day low yield on the 10 year was 1.91%.
Holy crap........just a very large boat load of all flavors of bonds floating about.
To repeat, in spite of having been a bond person for a number of years; I really don't like the fast forward picture.
"I actually don’t know of anything other than U3 [the official unemployment rate] that would make you want to tighten. All the price indicators (including wages) scream weakness, as do all the other labor market indicators. If we didn’t have the unemployment number, nobody would see a reason to hike.”-Paul Krugman, Econ professor, Graduate Center of the City University of New York, op-ed columnist for The New York Times, Nobelist.
Wow! I'm worried that I agree with this guy. Then again he had a 50/50 chance of being correct.
Comments
Crash's Post
It says,
1. Trend persistency is alive and well (borrowing one of Junkster's phrases).
2. There's an aging population (pushing people into annuities and bond investments viewed as "safe").
3. There's fiscal uncertainty in the U.S. (the battle over the budget and a bunch of fruit-cakes running for President).
4. There's a slowdown in China (Surprise! Economies don't always grow exponentially and markets sometimes correct.)
That should cover it.
Crash's link is on Jeff Gundlach's forebodings about a rate hike (around the time of the last FOMC meeting). Fair enough. But I wouldn't read a tremendous amount into it. Economists seem about equally divided on the question. And, Gundlach does have a dog in the fight - so to speak.
http://news.investors.com/100915-775007-compounding-interest-and-investment-returns-to-help-your-kids.htm
Lets see/think............Norway just cut rates again, yes? India did a rate cut the first part of this week, I recall. Although India is benefiting muchly from inexpensive crude pricing.
As a bond investor over the years, I remain concerned about the amount of issuance in high yield, corp. and gov't. bonds. HY in the energy sector is already getting wacked, the M&A issues bonds every which way on the cheap in order to buy "something", just "anything". And centrals banks worldwide have so many issues flowing around at really low yields............ I suspect the words "what the hell we gonna do when no one wants these anymore?" have been spoken at more than one meeting.
The intra-day low yield on the 10 year was 1.91%.
Holy crap........just a very large boat load of all flavors of bonds floating about.
To repeat, in spite of having been a bond person for a number of years; I really don't like the fast forward picture.
Hang in there.
Catch
https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/10/02/are-there-any-economic-indicators-pointing-towards-the-need-for-a-fed-rate-hike-some-of-my-econ-pals-weigh-in/
Wow! I'm worried that I agree with this guy. Then again he had a 50/50 chance of being correct.
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will on Bloomberg TV/Radio tomorrow (Monday) morning. He does great interviews.