I would like to find a single fund or a small portfolio of funds (2-5) whose purpose would be to dollar cost average "out of" rather "into" providing me with an income stream.
I would like this fund or portfolio to be positively correlated to inflation...maybe with exposure to (10-40%) stocks, commodities, Real Estate, Precious Metals...as well as provide yield from bond holdings (60-90%) that will hold up well as interest rates finally start to rise.
I will need to make a monthly withdrawal of $500 from this investment and I would like the investment to provide me a monthly withdrawal for a 5-10 year period with a 3% COLA each year. Low volatility (no more than 7% downside risk) and tax efficiency would be a plus.
The initial investment would be based on a 4% draw down
Here's a sample spreadsheet with a few assumptions:
Initial Investment: $40K
10 Year Average Performance: 9.7%
Initial Draw Down: $500/ month
Yearly COLA Adjustment: 3%
The likelihood of these numbers working over the next ten years seems awful optimistic.
Your thoughts on which funds make be good candidates would be very much appreciated.
Comments
http://www.principalfunds.com/investor/promo/gdif/innovative_approach.html
As expressing a circumstance or emotion is most difficult with words we type into our machines; I will note the following: With a smile on my face, medium tone words and a hand upon your shoulder; as we stand inside the Mutual Fund Roadside Cafe, I would say, "You don't want much, do you?" But, I do ask again about 9.7% annualized return. 'Course this question is with the best of intentions.
So, ya want two that have been in place for some time and have been through the market grinder? They'll give you a little bit of everything and have 10 year annualized of 11% and 11.4% respectively:
---FAGIX (hy/hi bonds + 15-20% is usually allocated to equiy)
---PRPFX
Not sure about the tax side of these two.
I presume a "buy and hold" as you didn't note otherwise.
Regards,
Catch
Thanks Scott,
This seems like a very diversified fund with a great manager. Does Rob Arnott manage any other funds?
Bloomberg ranks PAUDX 1383th out of 2700 "flexible portfolio" funds based on its 3 month performance yet, its is ranked 8th over a 5 year time frame. Here are the top 18 "flexible portfolio" using Bloomberg fund ranking tool. PAUDX's short term performance makes me think it can be pretty volatile in the short term...nice long term performance. Do you find that timing (when you buy) this fund impacts your personal performance.
Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=invest_mutualfunds&Fund=paudx&ListBy=5Y&From=1&Term=2
Here are the top 18 on their site:
Thanks MikeM,
Bloomberg catagorizes PGDIX as a "Global Debt" fund. As I checked out Catch's suggestion (FAGIX) I came across PYHIX...are you familiar with this fund?
I own TGBAX which also has a nice long term performance. Does PGDIX have high minimums or load fees? Since PGDIX has only a 3 year record here are other funds ranked along with this fund (ranked 14th):
Thanks Catch,
I have invest in PRPFX and I agree...it makes my short list. Looks like I need to incorporate FAGIX. Do you feel FAGIX will fare well as interest rates rise? It looks like it had a tough year last year compared to its 3 and 5 year performance.
Here are the top 25 Corp/Preferred HY funds:
Regarding FAGIX in particular; yes, 2011 was a disappointing year. I can not or will not attempt to make an excuse for or analyze what the fund held or why management made the choices involved. I will note that any given manager will be in the wrong place at the wrong time, sometimes; and I know you are aware of this and likely agree. I will have to presume that some of the hy/hi bond choices were not in the right place and this also relates to the 15-20% equity holdings of this fund. I can also say the same for several of our holdings in 2011. I wondered what in the heck was going on with PTTRX , LSBDX and TEGBX in 2011. LSBDX almost got the big whack here, early in the year. But, the fund apparently had positions in place, that were bothered by late 2011 problems related to Europe angst, and some of this has now turned around.
As to Bloomberg and the list. I do use and like the listings feature. As you have done with your list, you have selected the long term list and also selected the 5 year ranking. I also click through the other long term choices and look again. A reference to this is to find our FNMIX to be at something like #117 on the short term list, but #12 on the 5 year list. I also like to use the 10 year returns we can find a M*.
Bloomberg has the same impossible task of grouping funds into a class/sector type. Geez, we have a difficult task of attempting to find where a particular fund any of us use to find a "match" as to style.
The task is noted with your list in your post. One will find the very top bunch to be in the 3 ticker symbol class. I'll bet some of these funds use a lot of cool tricks and methods to garner the returns. This is not wrong and I salute their skills, but the list problem for our judging the listings is compounded by a kinda related group of funds; but not a pure compare.
I'm sure you have placed PRPFX into the Bloomberg list and scratched your head as to some of the other fund compares.
The same applies to using the listing for their balanced fund choices. Whew, they sure don't compare in many aspects. Balanced in favor of what?
The same applies, as I know you are aware; of looking at a moderate fund by name or apparent type. One may look at a list for 2012 returns YTD and think; wow, those folks really know what they are doing. One then discovers that the fund (at the time) happens to have a leaning towards a hot sector at the time with 25% of its portfolio. Will this sector still favor the fund by this year's end; well, we sure don't know.
Our house looks at our mix and attempts to figure where it fits into anything. The mix was relatively happy in 2011. Will it remain the same for 2012; and would we be happy with a 6% return based upon our apparent risk and reward thinking?
Smilingly, I will say that our portfolio mix could be named "sideways" with a 4.7% average yield kicker. A little bit up, a little bit down; depending on how happy various sectors may be at a given week.
I still like FAGIX as part of a diversified portfolio; and I will also include FNMIX for part of another sector, if not already covered by another fund holding.
'Course, at this rate; you'll easily exceed your 2-5 funds total....:):):)
Hoping I was of some help; and to note my disclaimer that I indeed may not know what I'm talking about.............
Regards,
Catch
I purchased this fund in my 401k through TRP. No load. I think the exp ratio was ~0.8. Not sure what the minimum is but I believe it's low, $2000? range.
This is just an idea. When you mentioned 1 fund to draw off income, this one range a bell. From the web site I attached in the 1st post, it suggests who might benefit from this fund.:
Helping to Meet Client Objectives
Many investors are looking for sources of monthly distributions, whether to fund a retirement lifestyle or meet other income needs. The Principal Global Diversified Income Fund is designed to offer several potential benefits to a traditional fixed-income portfolio:
Increased investment yield potential with greater diversification
Exposure to equity securities within a predominantly fixed-income portfolio
Addition of “non-core” asset classes with multiple experienced managers
Convenience of a diversified portfolio within a single position
Leveraging asset class diversity around the world with the expertise of a global investment management team
Pimco All Asset is Arnott's other fund, which is also a fund of Pimco funds, but cannot short and does not use leverage. Its returns tend to be more volatile - I think.
Both funds throw off rather significant distributions/dividends. I also like PGDIX, which Mike mentions below, although I think my only concern with that is that I think MLPs (which make up one smaller part of that fund are overbought, largely because people are so desperate for yield.)
The other thing I was looking at was Guggenheim's Multi-Asset Income funds (CVY is the largely US one, and I think HGI is the ticker for the global version), although those are quite a bit more volatile than either PGDIX or PAUDX and do still also have an MLP component (although again, not a huge element of the fund.) I own a bit of PGDIX, but I don't know if I would add more right *yet.*
I suppose my view is that I want yield, but I really think some higher yielding assets have been overbought or significantly overbought, and I'd wait for a pullback.
If you have an account at Fidelity, Fidelity provides a Retirement Income Calculator which does Monte Carlo simulations.
A better alternative is to use Financial Engines. It is available free from a number of Retirement Plans. You can also have a trial access at:
https://www.financialengines.com/FeContent?act=presswelcome
I have thought about your post. Drawing form my own holdings here are five funds that I own that might be considered as they seem to meet the distribution yield you seek. In addition, they have a good chance to maintain principal if bought during a pull back even perhaps grow it along with meeting their distribution objective, form my thoughts and my experience thus far. I would not be a buyer of these funds at current market valuations. I would wait for at least a ten percent correction in the market before investing any money in most anything considering the current investment climate. I have recently been a seller of equities; and, I will have to wait till I feel there is better value to be had before I become a buyer again. Usually equities go soft during the summer months. You might wish to reference Morningstar’s Market Valuation Graph that I have linked below and follow it along. I only buy when I feel a good discount prevails. According to this graph, this is not presently the case.
http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx
The first fund is AZNAX, Allianz NACM Income & Growth Fund A, it kicks off a monthly distribution and has a distribution yield of about eight and one half percent annually. Its fact sheet is linked below.
http://www.allianzinvestors.com/ShareholderCommunications/External Documents/allianz_agic_income_and_growth_af106.pdf?sc-pid=A-244
The second fund is PGBAX, Principal Global Diversified Income A, it kicks off a monthly distribution yield that totals about five and one third percent annually. Its fact sheet is linked below.
http://www.principal.com/allweb/docs/RIS/investments/factsheet/PGBAX.pdf
The third fund is IGPAX, ING Target Payment Fund A, it kicks off a monthly planned distribution that totals better than six percent annually. Its fact sheet is linked below.
http://www.ingfunds.com/idc/groups/public/documents/products/fundspace_ffk-gtpf4.pdf
The fourth funds is PASAX, Pimco All Asset Fund A, it kicks off a quarterly distribution that totals better than six percent annually. Its fact sheet is linked below.
http://investments.pimco.com/ShareholderCommunications/External Documents/pimco_all_asset_PF4018.pdf
The fith fund is JCRAX, Jefferies Commodity Strategy Fund A, it kicks off a quarterly distribution yield that totals about eight percent annually. Its fund card is linked below.
https://www.jamfunds.com/pdfs/JCR_FundCard.pdf
I would make sure you perform due diligence on these funds before investing any money; and, even perhaps meet with a financial advisor or planner for their take and ideas that you might also pursue. Perhaps a mix of these might just be the ticket you are looking for.
Good Luck with you mandate … and, Good Investing,
Skeeter
Thanks Anonymous (aka Skeeter),
I agree that present valuations make the equity side of this financial plan much more dicey right now. Thanks for your thoughtful response. Keeping or growing principal while taking a stream of income would be my ultimate goal so thanks for the encouragement towards that end. I appreciate your suggestions and the weekend homework assignment.
Your way too humble...I can't imagine anyone other than one's wife agreeing with you...thanks for reminding me that: the more I learn, the more I realize how little I know...and yes, my list of players (funds) is getting longer, not shorter.