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Just got back from Costa Rica for 10 days with Caravan Tours and had a great time. Great value for your money but the airline industry is bucking to take over first place for the sleazebags of the universe from the insurance industry - and we had no problems. Sokay, I've asked this before and I'm still waiting for a trend to develop that's playable. It might be starting (see chart). When it does, it very possibly could be a very nice trend to play.
Now. Let's suppose we decide that it is starting to move - what are your favorites plays? Stocks, funds, ETFs.
Fidelity FSNGX is perhaps the easy pure play but I'd guess it's primarily stocks in ng companies as compared to ETFs which could be nat gas itself. Here's the list of some of the choices and there are probably more coming out daily. I know direxion's got 3x up and down for those with the chops.
I went with NG gas stocks that would benefit from the NG trend as opposed to the commodity itself. I invested in CLNE, LNG and GLNG. I wiffed on FSYS but would consider buying that on a pullback. Today I appear to be a genius but I think CLNE's runup maybe a short squeeze, but I still like it long term. Another stock to look at would be WPRT. My prefernce would have been to go the mutual fund route but I didn't find any that focused on the businesses, just the producers. I think the NG trend is only going to grow. I'm looking for businesses that benefit from increased use of NG. There are a NG bills in both the House and the Senate and if the Legislature ever agrees to pass one, I think NG stocks soar. Investment and politics aside, eventually we need to take advantage of this resource.
Oy, I wish I hadn't sold CLNE (which is a rather volatile stock) in the mid-teens several months ago. I have other energy plays that are doing well, but I suppose I remain skeptical that there will be a large-scale move in this country to nat gas (as I said in Old Joe's thread a few days ago about the country exporting it to other nations), even if it makes all the sense in the world. That move will only happen at the point of maximum need for it to. There is very likely a short squeeze in CLNE going on, but the underlying company is very compelling if the move into NG really happens. I'd be particularly interested in nat gas plays in other countries that may be more forward thinking about its use or would supply it to them (Gazprom, perhaps?)
Costa Rica, and you came back to Michigan, eh? Do you visit any of the realtors while there? I watched nat gas from the later part of last fall; and recall in late Dec or early Jan. that nat. gas pricing hit bottom around $2.25. I checked UNG for a few days with charting; and the weekly relative strength hit 20; which is about as weak as one may see for R.S.I. FSNGX is up about 10% for the year; but I suspect this is more of the equity mix and not a pure relationship to the commodity pricing. Also, Chesapeke and a few others shut down draws at numerous sites for lack of storage and the low pricing. We held FSNGX a few years ago for several months. I don't doubt there may be long term upward movement in this area; but with the current supply, the warm winter this year, the number of foreclosed homes (not using any gas); and even from several years ago, too many large complexes for manufacturing that are also closed and not using gas. Aside from these; fracking may still bring more sites into production (hopefully, not in Michigan); and to the positive, they are fleet vehicles that will be expanded to operate on nat. gas. I have no info regarding conversion to nat. gas by the utility companies.
Hey mister, glad to see that life and retirement are suiting you well.
So what is it that you're looking for from natural gas, just a general rise in the cost per cubic foot or greater utilization possibly from vehicles. The former may eventually happen on its own but for now I just play it with the pipelines (NGLS, EPD and KMI) who get paid a toll for having it pulsed through their pipes. It doesn't really matter what the $cf is just the volume TYVM.
As for the latter we might still be quite a ways off and if you go the individual equity route I think they are merely trades at this point. The attached article might/should give you an inkling as to why I feel that way: http://www.startribune.com/business/140370743.html
Good idea but initial conversion costs are high and the semi's can't go very far from home base at least until more service stations are equipped to handle the fuel. Long term I think it's a good way to go but there simply doesn't appear to be enough interest just yet.
Great ideas. I've played both FSNGX and GASFX before and actually, want to hit it with dividends. GASFX would be the ticket, but this is coming in to off season for heating, but on season for a/c. Mutter, mutter.
How about the bloody gold market today. Oh really. What it looks like is someone large unwinding a position just shy of a barrier - 1800 - ala Carlos Slim a few years back with silver pushing 50. When that happens, all the trade money that had been riding the past several weeks and who keep tight stops, went south. feh. WTFDIC? I still need to by a few silver crowns for 2012.
BTW, way off topic, but this treehuggin, dirtmunchin, druid's go a new project. Gonna reforest the Looking Glass river (on which rono lives) watershed starting with the corridor this season and continuing annually. The Conservation District is coming out with a special sale of 6 specific trees at huge cheap and small sizes. Lining up partners right now. Our garden club and the adjoining one, the township, the scouts, etc. are already signed up.
The bottom line is where you live but it's better with more trees. You believe in global warming? Plant some trees and put Mother Nature to work. She's the heavy lifter. You don't believe in it, plant some trees anyway. I can list all kinds of great reasons, but on this board, plain and simple, it's a wise and prudent investment and will give you a much better return than most alternatives. I watched an old guy with a bushaxe limbing up with teak trees. They were about 3" caliper. Er, try black walnut coach.
Rono: I wish you well in your tree planting ! To often I see (farmers) removing the trees along a stream bank so they may gather a bushel or two more per acre.
Reply to @MikeM: These are totally different investments. GASFX is a utility fund. Utilities does better obviously when their input cost (gas) is lower and electric consumption is higher. On the other hand, companies involved in the production of natural resources does better when the price of natural resource is going up.
Comments
I went with NG gas stocks that would benefit from the NG trend as opposed to the commodity itself. I invested in CLNE, LNG and GLNG. I wiffed on FSYS but would consider buying that on a pullback. Today I appear to be a genius but I think CLNE's runup maybe a short squeeze, but I still like it long term. Another stock to look at would be WPRT. My prefernce would have been to go the mutual fund route but I didn't find any that focused on the businesses, just the producers.
I think the NG trend is only going to grow. I'm looking for businesses that benefit from increased use of NG. There are a NG bills in both the House and the Senate and if the Legislature ever agrees to pass one, I think NG stocks soar. Investment and politics aside, eventually we need to take advantage of this resource.
Costa Rica, and you came back to Michigan, eh? Do you visit any of the realtors while there?
I watched nat gas from the later part of last fall; and recall in late Dec or early Jan. that nat. gas pricing hit bottom around $2.25. I checked UNG for a few days with charting; and the weekly relative strength hit 20; which is about as weak as one may see for R.S.I. FSNGX is up about 10% for the year; but I suspect this is more of the equity mix and not a pure relationship to the commodity pricing. Also, Chesapeke and a few others shut down draws at numerous sites for lack of storage and the low pricing. We held FSNGX a few years ago for several months. I don't doubt there may be long term upward movement in this area; but with the current supply, the warm winter this year, the number of foreclosed homes (not using any gas); and even from several years ago, too many large complexes for manufacturing that are also closed and not using gas.
Aside from these; fracking may still bring more sites into production (hopefully, not in Michigan); and to the positive, they are fleet vehicles that will be expanded to operate on nat. gas. I have no info regarding conversion to nat. gas by the utility companies.
Regards,
Catch
So what is it that you're looking for from natural gas, just a general rise in the cost per cubic foot or greater utilization possibly from vehicles. The former may eventually happen on its own but for now I just play it with the pipelines (NGLS, EPD and KMI) who get paid a toll for having it pulsed through their pipes. It doesn't really matter what the $cf is just the volume TYVM.
As for the latter we might still be quite a ways off and if you go the individual equity route I think they are merely trades at this point. The attached article might/should give you an inkling as to why I feel that way:
http://www.startribune.com/business/140370743.html
Good idea but initial conversion costs are high and the semi's can't go very far from home base at least until more service stations are equipped to handle the fuel. Long term I think it's a good way to go but there simply doesn't appear to be enough interest just yet.
Mark
Iran Moves Further To End Petrodollar, Announces Will Accept Payment In Gold Instead Of Dollars
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/iran-moves-further-end-petrodollar-announces-will-accept-payment-gold-instead-dollars
Additionally:
"Last week, the Tehran Times noted that the Iranian oil bourse will start trading oil in currencies other than the dollar from March 20. This long-planned move is part of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s vision of economic war with the west."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/9077600/Iran-presses-ahead-with-dollar-attack.html
Feb average gas price at all-time high:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/average-february-gas-price-all-time-high-follows-record-january-gasoline-costs
I've always liked to play energy (and natural resources) in a more diversified way though with PRNEX, but I've never lost money playing GASFX.
Great ideas. I've played both FSNGX and GASFX before and actually, want to hit it with dividends. GASFX would be the ticket, but this is coming in to off season for heating, but on season for a/c. Mutter, mutter.
How about the bloody gold market today. Oh really. What it looks like is someone large unwinding a position just shy of a barrier - 1800 - ala Carlos Slim a few years back with silver pushing 50. When that happens, all the trade money that had been riding the past several weeks and who keep tight stops, went south. feh. WTFDIC? I still need to by a few silver crowns for 2012.
BTW, way off topic, but this treehuggin, dirtmunchin, druid's go a new project. Gonna reforest the Looking Glass river (on which rono lives) watershed starting with the corridor this season and continuing annually. The Conservation District is coming out with a special sale of 6 specific trees at huge cheap and small sizes. Lining up partners right now. Our garden club and the adjoining one, the township, the scouts, etc. are already signed up.
The bottom line is where you live but it's better with more trees. You believe in global warming? Plant some trees and put Mother Nature to work. She's the heavy lifter. You don't believe in it, plant some trees anyway. I can list all kinds of great reasons, but on this board, plain and simple, it's a wise and prudent investment and will give you a much better return than most alternatives. I watched an old guy with a bushaxe limbing up with teak trees. They were about 3" caliper. Er, try black walnut coach.
peace,
rono
later, Derf