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King Of Bonds’ Gundlach: No Great Case For Higher Rates
Great point of JG's that once the first 0.25 or so is in, Fed watching will probably shift to "when's the next one" and "how fast," and won't settle down at all. Fed "uncertainty" won't go away, it'll just shift focus. (And then there's always the chance the "inevitable rate-rise" perspective will get whipsawed if one of the next Fed rate moves is back down, to try to give a flagging economy a little boost.)
Agree with what's been said. There's a belief out there (I think encouraged by the Fed) that they want higher rates so they can lower them again and stimulate growth should the economy worsen. That's a bit illogical. If current low rates aren't providing much stimulus, why would returning to them at some future point help?
BTW - Weird day on markets. Gold's having very nice bump while most everything else is in the dumpster.
We will have a low interest rate environment for 5-8 years more.
In about 10 years we will have a VAT to deal with gov't deficits and interest on the debt which will keep interest rates low.
I'd say the only thing what will have large pricing power is apartment rent, homes. retail space in densely populated, health care and necessities such as gas, electric, food.
We will have a low interest rate environment for 5-8 years more.
In about 10 years we will have a VAT to deal with gov't deficits and interest on the debt which will keep interest rates low.
I'd say the only thing what will have large pricing power is apartment rent, homes. retail space in densely populated, health care and necessities such as gas, electric, food.
I hope you're wrong on the VAT, but you're probably not. It would not surprise me if we have a low interest rate environment for nearly another decade, but I sort of question whether that can be managed without something becoming disorderly.
I fully, fully agree with you on the pricing power statement. In terms of retail space, I kinda ponder warehouse space given continued rise of online shopping vs B & M, but high quality retail in dense areas is fine.
I fully, fully agree with you on the pricing power statement. In terms of retail space, I kinda ponder warehouse space given continued rise of online shopping vs B & M, but high quality retail in dense areas is fine.
The large online seller build their own centers.
My guess if you want to look for the play in that area it would be UPS. They do some warehousing and repairs along with shipping that would go up with internet sales.
Comments
BTW - Weird day on markets. Gold's having very nice bump while most everything else is in the dumpster.
It won't. But what else can they do...well, aside from NIRP, that is.
In about 10 years we will have a VAT to deal with gov't deficits and interest on the debt which will keep interest rates low.
I'd say the only thing what will have large pricing power is apartment rent, homes. retail space in densely populated, health care and necessities such as gas, electric, food.
I fully, fully agree with you on the pricing power statement. In terms of retail space, I kinda ponder warehouse space given continued rise of online shopping vs B & M, but high quality retail in dense areas is fine.
My guess if you want to look for the play in that area it would be UPS. They do some warehousing and repairs along with shipping that would go up with internet sales.