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Deflation - bad for stocks & corp bonds - Currency Wars ...
And an interesting wiki on Market (Growth Share) Matrix:
"As a particular industry matures and its growth slows, all business units become either cash cows or dogs. The natural cycle for most business units is that they start as question marks, then turn into stars. Eventually the market stops growing thus the business unit becomes a cash cow. At the end of the cycle the cash cow turns into a dog."
Yellen has said in the past she's not against NIRP.
If she raises rates only to bring them down again, the story is over: people don't complain about ZIRP when they can take advantage of it, but when interest rates go up 50 basis points only to come down again, the only thing that people are going to say is, "Gee, I guess the economy couldn't take 50 basis points."
Now that the Chinese have devalued (and may very well go further), it's not out of the question that other countries could do the exact same thing and have this turn into competitive devaluation.
I don't think the Fed will raise rates this year which will erode credibility after all the discussion of it. If they raise only to bring back down, not good either.
Yellen has said in the past she's not against NIRP.
Do you have any idea how NIRP could be implemented in the USA?
I don't see how it can be done? If I get interest from a mutual fund and re-invest it, it shouldn't be taxed, right or wrong?
In the past it was done on savings accounts. Only the poor and financially unkowning would have any money in one.
The only place I have 'cash' is in my brokerage account for my annual cash needs. If there was NIRP I would just move it to my checking account to avoid any negative interest.
I would also think that the congress might be against it. NIRP takes money from everyone, even the poor.
Dex - Where'd all that negative thinking ever get you?
(Buffet doesn't think so. Spending like a drunken sailor.)
Buffett has also said (including about his recent decent on Precision Cast Parts) that his holding period is considerably longer and it would not seem he has any interest in selling wholly owned Berkshire companies (such as the latest one.) CNBC continually points to Buffett buying something; that's really meaningless to the average person who has an even slightly longer-term view.
I'm guessing you weren't being serious, but just saying.
With oil approaching 40, I think it looks increasingly likely that oil does trade with a 3 in front of it. At that point, I think you start seeing more in the way of defaults. With oil making up a large part of the high yield index, things get interesting.
I'm not decreasing my exposure to stocks, but I have trimmed/dropped some volatile names.
Junkster's been right on HY for so long it's starting to get boring.
Scott - Guess I was making light of the all-inclusiveness of Dex's comment. Some stock(s) will be higher a year from now. We just don't know which one(s).
"...they're in a kind of silly loop where they did QE expecting a reaction... didn't get it.. and then they did QE again because it didn't live up to their expectations... but I think they have no other options, if things get negative on the economy, QE is all they can do."
Comments
Market Share Defined:
investopedia.com/terms/m/marketshare.asp
And an interesting wiki on Market (Growth Share) Matrix:
"As a particular industry matures and its growth slows, all business units become either cash cows or dogs. The natural cycle for most business units is that they start as question marks, then turn into stars. Eventually the market stops growing thus the business unit becomes a cash cow. At the end of the cycle the cash cow turns into a dog."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth%E2%80%93share_matrix
If she raises rates only to bring them down again, the story is over: people don't complain about ZIRP when they can take advantage of it, but when interest rates go up 50 basis points only to come down again, the only thing that people are going to say is, "Gee, I guess the economy couldn't take 50 basis points."
Now that the Chinese have devalued (and may very well go further), it's not out of the question that other countries could do the exact same thing and have this turn into competitive devaluation.
I don't think the Fed will raise rates this year which will erode credibility after all the discussion of it. If they raise only to bring back down, not good either.
Oaktree (OAK) holding up nicely on a bad day....
(Buffet doesn't think so. Spending like a drunken sailor.)
I don't see how it can be done? If I get interest from a mutual fund and re-invest it, it shouldn't be taxed, right or wrong?
In the past it was done on savings accounts. Only the poor and financially unkowning would have any money in one.
The only place I have 'cash' is in my brokerage account for my annual cash needs. If there was NIRP I would just move it to my checking account to avoid any negative interest.
I would also think that the congress might be against it. NIRP takes money from everyone, even the poor.
Eventually, would not surprise me if they do away with paper currency. If everything's digital, no way to escape monetary policy.
I'm guessing you weren't being serious, but just saying.
With oil approaching 40, I think it looks increasingly likely that oil does trade with a 3 in front of it. At that point, I think you start seeing more in the way of defaults. With oil making up a large part of the high yield index, things get interesting.
I'm not decreasing my exposure to stocks, but I have trimmed/dropped some volatile names.
Scott - Guess I was making light of the all-inclusiveness of Dex's comment. Some stock(s) will be higher a year from now. We just don't know which one(s).
Berkshire has a very long holding period.
The Fed is out of options, QE is their only option if things go negative:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000405645
"...they're in a kind of silly loop where they did QE expecting a reaction... didn't get it.. and then they did QE again because it didn't live up to their expectations... but I think they have no other options, if things get negative on the economy, QE is all they can do."