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S@P 9% cheaper than in April based on earnings

hank
edited February 2012 in Off-Topic
Quiet day. U.S. drifting higher in morning. Japan NIKKEI gained +.40% overnight. Most of Asia was down, South Korea's KOSPI among the losers dropping over -1%. Europe's about flat. Germany's DAX down about 1%. Gold continues meteoric rise - nearing $1800. 10-Year Treasury bouncing just above 2% - well above recent lows - still ridiculously low IMHO. 30 year mortgage edged slightly up last week. Oil's well north of $100 (105 - 120 depending on grade). Recall it being around $150 in '08 just prior to the crash. Dow just under 13,000 digesting big gains. Yep, it's just a number. However, for those who follow fund flows and think they're relevant, suspect were it to cross over and stay above 13,000 for a few weeks it would have a positive effect on flows and the party might continue. Caution Flags: OJ and others have expressed concerns about war drums and how this might upset the cart. On the other hand, stats on election years are encouraging - usually good years.

Meg Whitman was on cnbc today with her latest plans for turning HP around. Sure hope so. Still own some DODBX, and they've held big chunk of the sleeping giant forever it seems.

Linked article purports to show increased earnings have made S&P cheaper on a P/E basis than it was in April. Offered with the usual caveat: Figures can lie, and liars can figure.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-gets-9-cheaper-050100865.html


Comments

  • scott
    edited February 2012
    Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP) and Loews (L) doing well today for me. EM stuff not so much.

    Selling a number of little, more superfluous positions and moving some to cash for the time being (which is highly unusual for me.)

    I'm not concerned about war drums as much as the near-term effect of oil at $105+. Apple being such an enormous focus to me is also highly concerning - heaven forbid Apple ever make a mistake, given that it's now such a big % of the Nasdaq (and this "One out of five hedge funds has AAPL among its ten largest long positions" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/not-again-following-abysmal-2011-only-10-hedge-funds-are-outperforming-sp-2012)

    Apple shareholder meeting:
    "A Great Disturbance in the Bourse":
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/great-disturbance-bourse

  • scott
    edited February 2012
    -
  • hank
    edited February 2012
    Reply to @scott: Yep. I should have also mentioned oil. It's always good to lock-in some profits. However, think oil's got a ways to go before a serious impediment. Price rise is natural reaction to all the war talk. Having a bit in commodities funds, my fear is that oil comes down hard once the crisis clears. FWIW: small caps are out in front today.
  • Desota
    Hank
    Thanks for the link.
    Desota
  • johnNjohnN
    I am very cautious, not buying much. Just watching w/ my private $$. Although the 401K/tsp is still 80%stocks/20% bonds. Thinking of selling several bonds that made a killing the past few yrs.

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