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What is interesting is a comparison of the resource (Oil, Natural Gas) and the Energy Service companies (Drillers, shippers, refineries, Midstreams, chemical, etc.).
Low energy prices are like low interest rates for some companies because it lowers their input costs.
Also, frackers are stuck between a fracked rock and a hard place. "Refracking" will be a term we hear being mentioned going forward. It happens when a well is left idle and needs to be reopened. What some "refracked" wells are enjoying is an increase in previous output by as much as an additional 30%.
Storage (contango) will also be a goal for some energy producers.
The Energy sector (VDE, XLE) is one of my bottom fishes:
Ticker-------Off 52 wk Low---Off 52 wk high XLE, VDE.....1.42%....................28% - Energy FCX.............2.87%....................63% - Natural Gas USO.............11.4%...................55% - US Oil Producers UNG.............5.06%...................46% - Natural Gas
And here's commodities: GCC............1.8%......................23% - Commodities
Might be a good time to dca (dollar cost average) into these inflation fighting insurance policies. Especially those that have most of their downside worked into the price and still pay a dividend.
In my opinion, "cheap" dividend paying stocks can act like bonds.
Finally,
"A strong dollar also has a negative impact on the oil price, which rebounded this spring as the dollar went through a period of temporary weakness. Brazil and Russia, both major oil exporters, would go through another round of pain if oil heads back down. Manufacturing-focused countries in East Asia, among them South Korea and Taiwan, would likely benefit from cheaper energy."
Hi Bee, I agree with you and am thinking of adding to BBL, but I just want to point out an error in that report you quoted: Brazil is actually a small oil importer. Petrobras is a mess and could use higher oil prices, and they would help the ethanol/sugar sectors too, but for the overall economy it's probably a wash. The price of iron ore, on the other hand, is deadly.
Hi Bee, I agree with you and am thinking of adding to BBL, but I just want to point out an error in that report you quoted: Brazil is actually a small oil importer. Petrobras is a mess and could use higher oil prices, and they would help the ethanol/sugar sectors too, but for the overall economy it's probably a wash. The price of iron ore, on the other hand, is deadly.
Brazil is a mess. Retail sales in the toilet, too.
In terms of energy, ETE holding up remarkably well in terms of pipeline cos. The commodities futures companies (ICE, CME) also doing very well while oil ... doesn't.
Exxon could pay either amount from the change they scrounge up from under the cushions of their leather office furniture and never beat an eye. They have more lawyers than NJ has money.
Energy makes up about 8% of the S&P 500 Index. I am currently overweight the energy sector by about 1% as I write by holding a little better than 9% in the sector. At this time, I don't plan to add more. However, the fund mangers of the funds that I own, just might. Hopefully, it will gain some upward movement soon.
Big bounce today in commodities, but still on life-support. Like the "insurance" analogy bee made. Iron ore leaped nearly 10% in a single day.
Have considered "re-converting" the Roth conversion of a commodities fund in January. Off around 7% since the conversion date. Looks like I'd have until October to make such a move. But my instincts tell me to hang tough. I like that I've already burned-up more than 6 months of the 5-year holding period too.
@bee I think I'd like a little more "downside worked into the price," but definitely a sector to be moved to the top of the Watch List. By year's end, should have a better lay of the land.
Comments
Low energy prices are like low interest rates for some companies because it lowers their input costs.
Also, frackers are stuck between a fracked rock and a hard place. "Refracking" will be a term we hear being mentioned going forward. It happens when a well is left idle and needs to be reopened. What some "refracked" wells are enjoying is an increase in previous output by as much as an additional 30%.
Storage (contango) will also be a goal for some energy producers.
The Energy sector (VDE, XLE) is one of my bottom fishes:
bottom-fishing-for-funds-and-etfs
Ticker-------Off 52 wk Low---Off 52 wk high
XLE, VDE.....1.42%....................28% - Energy
FCX.............2.87%....................63% - Natural Gas
USO.............11.4%...................55% - US Oil Producers
UNG.............5.06%...................46% - Natural Gas
And here's commodities:
GCC............1.8%......................23% - Commodities
Might be a good time to dca (dollar cost average) into these inflation fighting insurance policies. Especially those that have most of their downside worked into the price and still pay a dividend.
In my opinion, "cheap" dividend paying stocks can act like bonds.
Finally,
"A strong dollar also has a negative impact on the oil price, which rebounded this spring as the dollar went
through a period of temporary weakness. Brazil and Russia, both major oil exporters, would go through
another round of pain if oil heads back down. Manufacturing-focused countries in East Asia, among them
South Korea and Taiwan, would likely benefit from cheaper energy."
Source:
USAA Investment_Outlook_Mid_Year
I agree with you and am thinking of adding to BBL, but I just want to point out an error in that report you quoted: Brazil is actually a small oil importer. Petrobras is a mess and could use higher oil prices, and they would help the ethanol/sugar sectors too, but for the overall economy it's probably a wash. The price of iron ore, on the other hand, is deadly.
In terms of energy, ETE holding up remarkably well in terms of pipeline cos. The commodities futures companies (ICE, CME) also doing very well while oil ... doesn't.
Enjoy the day, Derf
"The company is the world's largest refiner and one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals." But look at this:
http://www.morningstar.com/news/AscPress/urn:publicid:ap.org:b9b73c6eca0841e2bb2abf4868e4fa75/Environmental-groups-Lesniak-to-argue-against-Exxon-deal.html
Anyone know where we are with this thing?
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/sp-500-sector-weightings/
Have considered "re-converting" the Roth conversion of a commodities fund in January. Off around 7% since the conversion date. Looks like I'd have until October to make such a move. But my instincts tell me to hang tough. I like that I've already burned-up more than 6 months of the 5-year holding period too.
FWIW
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2015/07/energy-resumes-downtrend.html