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The World's Richest People Lost $70 Billion Yesterday
Hi @Ted Am I to believe that with your statement, "lost $70,000 yesterday !" ;indicates that you sold portions of your portfolio, for a loss? I will presume, that with your knowledge; your portfolio was down this amount; but not a loss. Our portfolio was down, too; but July 1 indicates a replacement of much of this amount, if the markets don't "jerk" for some other reason(s). Our down was smoothed by investment grade bond holdings; but I don't expect, at this point, much more positive action from this group, as I scratch my head about this area. Take care, Catch
@John Chisum: I own Apple through two funds, SPY 3.94% of fund, and QQQ 14.22 % of the Fund. As I stated in a previous message , don't get to excited by their watch, search engine 'Spotlight' or music app., APPL is still all about phones. Regards, Ted
Not bad for an accredited investor such as yourself.
With those kind of losses, I pegged you to have about 5.5 million invested. That $70,000 paper loss sum would have resuled from a decline of about 1.25% on $5,500,000.00 invested.
Have a good day ... and, good luck to you. And, by the way, luck is defined, by me, as the result of good preparation finding opportunity.
Old Skeet is being very humble when he claims that his portfolio value estimate was simply a SWAG.
Most likely, he did what I infrequently do to easily and lazily estimate the impact of a day's action on my portfolio. I need just two market return numbers, and a rough asset allocation approximation.
For Monday's debacle, the broad US equities were down 2.2%, and the Developed Foreign equities were down about 2.3%. Most investors have a 60/40 equity/bond mix with maybe 15% in foreign equity holdings. That's suffificent info and assumptions to estimate Monday's losses, further assuming the bond positions don't contribute much in a single day.
The calculated loss for each one million dollars in a portfolio is simply 0.022 X 450000 + 0.023 X 150000 + 0.000 X 400000 = a minus 13,350 dollars per one million in the portfolio. If the total loss is about 70,000 dollars, the approximate value of the portfolio is 70,000/13,350 X 1,000,000 or about 5.24 million dollars. That's exactly how I do my quick and dirty calculation.
I congratulate MFOer Ted on having the resources to suffer that loss. It might hurt a little, but he and his portfolio survive to fight yet another day. We all do that. We all understand and accept the risks.
@MJG Twas not that I don't know how to do the ballpark math; as I do this all of the time for our portfolio. I was curious as to Old_Skeets number and what brought him to this conclusion.
Easy case for what Ted mentioned would be to pick 5 balanced/moderate allocation funds and discover the average down for the day in question. Magico-Presto, eh?
I've always been very good with head math........
Each week at our house for the true numbers, I use a handy-dandy and most reliable, HP-12C.
I'm sure your example may have been of benefit to someone here; but I am surprised that you would choose to explain your method to me.......my being in the game of life for so many years.
I am puzzled by your RPP submittal. I checked and it has a host of possible meanings like Registered Professional Planner and like Registered Pension Planner.
No disrespect intended or implied in my example calculation. I was simply responding to your question about how Old Skeet did his estimate. I just defined my way. It certainly is not the only way and is likely not the best way.
When submitting on this forum, I. always assume some neophyte investors who might benefit from a detailed explanation that is presumably redundant for highly seasoned investors.
@MJG & @Catch 22- That's a pretty long list of acronyms, but my money is on "Rich People's Problems". I'd also go with "Rape, Pillage and Plunder" for place or show, but that's just my better nature trying to emerge.
Comments
Am I to believe that with your statement, "lost $70,000 yesterday !" ;indicates that you sold portions of your portfolio, for a loss? I will presume, that with your knowledge; your portfolio was down this amount; but not a loss.
Our portfolio was down, too; but July 1 indicates a replacement of much of this amount, if the markets don't "jerk" for some other reason(s). Our down was smoothed by investment grade bond holdings; but I don't expect, at this point, much more positive action from this group, as I scratch my head about this area.
Take care,
Catch
Regards,
Ted
Regards,
Ted
Not bad for an accredited investor such as yourself.
With those kind of losses, I pegged you to have about 5.5 million invested. That $70,000 paper loss sum would have resuled from a decline of about 1.25% on $5,500,000.00 invested.
Have a good day ... and, good luck to you. And, by the way, luck is defined, by me, as the result of good preparation finding opportunity.
Your bud,
Old_Skeet
What is the 1.25% decline you noted? How is this number derived?
Just curious.
Take care,
Catch
SWAG ... Scientific Wild Ass Guess based upon a few assumptions.
Old_Skeet
FWIW, Old Skeet's SWAG ran very close to our loss as a % yesterday (6/29). The $70k/$5.5m ratio was very close to our experience.
Old Skeet is being very humble when he claims that his portfolio value estimate was simply a SWAG.
Most likely, he did what I infrequently do to easily and lazily estimate the impact of a day's action on my portfolio. I need just two market return numbers, and a rough asset allocation approximation.
For Monday's debacle, the broad US equities were down 2.2%, and the Developed Foreign equities were down about 2.3%. Most investors have a 60/40 equity/bond mix with maybe 15% in foreign equity holdings. That's suffificent info and assumptions to estimate Monday's losses, further assuming the bond positions don't contribute much in a single day.
The calculated loss for each one million dollars in a portfolio is simply 0.022 X 450000 + 0.023 X 150000 + 0.000 X 400000 = a minus 13,350 dollars per one million in the portfolio. If the total loss is about 70,000 dollars, the approximate value of the portfolio is 70,000/13,350 X 1,000,000 or about 5.24 million dollars. That's exactly how I do my quick and dirty calculation.
I congratulate MFOer Ted on having the resources to suffer that loss. It might hurt a little, but he and his portfolio survive to fight yet another day. We all do that. We all understand and accept the risks.
Best Wishes.
Twas not that I don't know how to do the ballpark math; as I do this all of the time for our portfolio. I was curious as to Old_Skeets number and what brought him to this conclusion.
Easy case for what Ted mentioned would be to pick 5 balanced/moderate allocation funds and discover the average down for the day in question. Magico-Presto, eh?
I've always been very good with head math........
Each week at our house for the true numbers, I use a handy-dandy and most reliable, HP-12C.
I'm sure your example may have been of benefit to someone here; but I am surprised that you would choose to explain your method to me.......my being in the game of life for so many years.
I am puzzled by your RPP submittal. I checked and it has a host of possible meanings like Registered Professional Planner and like Registered Pension Planner.
In what context did you use RPP?
Best Wishes.
Choose wisely from this list, eh?
http://www.acronymfinder.com/RPP.html
No disrespect intended or implied in my example calculation. I was simply responding to your question about how Old Skeet did his estimate. I just defined my way. It certainly is not the only way and is likely not the best way.
When submitting on this forum, I. always assume some neophyte investors who might benefit from a detailed explanation that is presumably redundant for highly seasoned investors.
Best Wishes.