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China up because they are creating a managed market where they want people to put their money in the stock market rather than housing. It will probably end badly - it's already turned their market into something that moves like a 3x etf.
"Late on Monday the finance and social security ministries published draft rules that would permit the state pension fund to invest up to 30% of its net asset value in securities, potentially allowing 600B yuan ($97B) to enter the market."
draft rules that would permit the state pension fund to invest up to 30% of its net asset value in securities
Oh, dear.... and where permission is granted, some enthusiasm/participation is expected, no? [after all, it worked out so well for state pensions in the USA, maybe they're figuring, "hey, what the hell, why not give it a go?"] Seriously, some of their "managed" mkt moves in the past couple of weeks have almost a whiff of quiet desperation about them, as if a whole lot is riding on successful levitation of stock market capitalization. I wonder if the Debt Chickens (both on the books and the larger shadow debt people have suspected being off) are coming home to roost?
draft rules that would permit the state pension fund to invest up to 30% of its net asset value in securities
Oh, dear.... and where permission is granted, some enthusiasm/participation is expected, no? [after all, it worked out so well for state pensions in the USA, maybe they're figuring, "hey, what the hell, why not give it a go?"] Seriously, some of their "managed" mkt moves in the past couple of weeks have almost a whiff of quiet desperation about them, as if a whole lot is riding on successful levitation of stock market capitalization. I wonder if the Debt Chickens (both on the books and the larger shadow debt people have suspected being off) are coming home to roost?
This entire period has had a whiff of desperation about it - "reflate or bust".
I'll say that everything might go a-okay and this is just another moment to buy the dip, but I do think this is the first time in a while where I've been genuinely concerned. China's attempts to manage their markets is likely going to lead to distress - one of the problems that I have had with this period are officials who act as if they can control a complex and potential volatile system with ease and then are surprised when volatility happens.
Greece ultimately was going to head this direction now or later. However, I will say this: could they restructure debt and get something versus just booting Greece and possibly getting nothing?
You know, there's the thought that the Greeks can just go to another currency if they exit, but there's not necessarily any guarantee that anyone will have any faith in that new currency.
The Puerto Rico situation will lead to eventually having to face reality too, and it becomes how is that handled smoothly and does one have confidence that it can/will be handled smoothly?
People say well, what's Greece? It's a tiny country. It is, but the interconnected nature of the global financial system today - and probably hasn't gotten any better post-2008 - means that a Greece, or a Puerto Rico or something else (if not handled well - can be the first domino.
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http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
"Late on Monday the finance and social security ministries published draft rules that would permit the state pension fund to invest up to 30% of its net asset value in securities, potentially allowing 600B yuan ($97B) to enter the market."
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2605935-china-calms-stock-market-storm
Seriously, some of their "managed" mkt moves in the past couple of weeks have almost a whiff of quiet desperation about them, as if a whole lot is riding on successful levitation of stock market capitalization. I wonder if the Debt Chickens (both on the books and the larger shadow debt people have suspected being off) are coming home to roost?
I'll say that everything might go a-okay and this is just another moment to buy the dip, but I do think this is the first time in a while where I've been genuinely concerned. China's attempts to manage their markets is likely going to lead to distress - one of the problems that I have had with this period are officials who act as if they can control a complex and potential volatile system with ease and then are surprised when volatility happens.
Greece ultimately was going to head this direction now or later. However, I will say this: could they restructure debt and get something versus just booting Greece and possibly getting nothing?
This time period has gotten particularly bizarre when I find myself in at least moderate agreement with Larry Summers, who notes that Greece could become a failed state if they are booted. (http://www.businessinsider.com/larry-summers-greece-will-probably-become-a-failed-state-2015-6)
You know, there's the thought that the Greeks can just go to another currency if they exit, but there's not necessarily any guarantee that anyone will have any faith in that new currency.
The Puerto Rico situation will lead to eventually having to face reality too, and it becomes how is that handled smoothly and does one have confidence that it can/will be handled smoothly?
People say well, what's Greece? It's a tiny country. It is, but the interconnected nature of the global financial system today - and probably hasn't gotten any better post-2008 - means that a Greece, or a Puerto Rico or something else (if not handled well - can be the first domino.