Yep! That's what I'm thinking. The boys and I had a strategy meeting (Moe, Larry, et. al.). Duke wanted in, but we said no, so he ran and told mom .... soooo, we had to let him in....the little Putin!! Have some cash with an itchy trigger finger. No rush.....I think we will have some time on this after all. Draghi will be involved in this .... wow! ...all markets could use a reset. This would be a prime time to do it. The buy list: FMEIX, FSCRX, FSRFX, YAFFX. No healthcare unless a big pullback....have enough already. Europe and Asia: GLFOX, JOHAX, MAPIX, RERFX. It would be nice to get this out of the way now so when rates rise, it would be a yawn. Never have so many been owed so much by so few for so long.....and why it still lingers. So a Happy Xmas to one and all (I hope!).
God bless.
the Pudd
Comments
The problem that I have is that I have a difficult time believing that they want to let that much reality intrude. I would not be surprised if Draghi used this as cover to do yet larger QE.
Good to hear from you. Yes, I go along with that thought. It's been a while since I heard that name (Draghi). He already shot down nay-sayers when they wanted to stop QE a while back. He advocated staying the course until at least September of 2016....maybe longer. Just another player added to the game.....sort of like the Kardashians. You just wish they would go away, but then off the bench comes a bigger and better player into the game. I'll bet half the NBA teams wish they had a bench as deep.
As for Greece, I would think they will default. They have five (5) times already, so what's one more? I would think, somewhere in the world this week, easy money can be made. As you can tell, I'm ready....this year has been dull.
God bless.
the Pudd
Hi Hank!
LOL - Yep good one. I do miss the snow though. I see presents from Asia to Europe....this morning I am ready to play.
As for China: "
The policy easing should be viewed as a measure to contain the risk of a hard landing or systemic crisis rather than one to achieve faster growth. In this case, the stronger-than-expected monetary easing may help stem the decline in the equity market following a 10.6% drop over the past two trading days. The positive wealth effect of the equity market on consumption or aggregate demand is limited in China, but an equity market collapse would hurt millions of mid-class households and pose great danger to the economy and social stability." (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-28/helpless-china-tips-its-hand-market-crash-poses-great-danger-social-stability)
Do I think that governments can continue postponing Winter? No, and the result will only be that much worse the longer they push off Winter. I also fear that if they postpone Winter long enough, it can get disorderly in the opposite direction.
I have said it before and I'll say it again: I do recommend continuing to focus on needs over wants. Continuing to recommend healthcare and some selected staples. I do think railroads remain oversold, too, as do some REITs.
Note Oaktree (OAK) up a bit this morning. Possibly interest in the world's largest distressed debt investor based around what is happening in Europe, as well as things like the announcement from Puerto Rico this morning.
Hi Scott!
You and I agree on much. No amount of money will stop what has to be done. Only make the bill larger. China can cut for a while....many new players have come to the game. There, again, that buys time. Also, China has not done QE yet many bullets left. Will that change the direction of travel? No, only the speed. Greece is a media play. Really, who cares? It comes down to will you stay or will you go in the Euro. The E.U. losses will vary in size with the outcome of the vote. Is this '08 all over again? I think not. What we have is a world that needs big changes, but those in power will not allow. And, if it means much pain, so be it. The rich feel nothing and so the game goes on 'till change comes (i.e., war). 'Till then, may the investment gods treat you well!
the Pudd
Monday I felt like Cramer.....BUY! BUY! BUY! Bought MAPIX, JOHAX, FMIJX, GLFOX, FPHAX, FSPHX. Wow! Long time since I bought so many funds. Did some more buying added to Tuesday: GLFOX, FMIJX, FPHAX, FSPHX, and bought FSRFX. The transports worry me....not that I'm a Dow theorist, but it matters, I feel, moreso than Greece. I have more money at home than overseas, so it matters; and I do not see any markets hitting the reset button.....no, not even Europe. Had hoped this would take some air from the balloon for the interest rate hike. But I think not. This was a perfect chance to reset and it was missed. I like it not. Today, I am looking at oil. It's dropping. If it keeps going, will add some to the position. Also, silver is dropping...will add eagles, also, and maybe a 9mm with a few hundred rounds.
God bless.
the Pudd
My friend who taught me the game said, "Buy when you can't mark it to market; the spread is your friend." Then again sometimes you win or not.
God bless
the Pudd
p.s. REITs....what about rates rising?
STWD is a REIT that actually will do well in rising rates but it's been thrown out with others in the category.
http://ir.starwoodpropertytrust.com/Cache/1500072132.PDF?Y=&O=PDF&D=&FID=1500072132&T=&IID=4235133 (page 22, specifically.)
Scott has offered a couple good prospect REITs and at the right price I'll bite.
As I am viewing your link, page 8 has given me a question: mezzanine loans---what is that? I see the Libor connection 80% of loans. Page 11: the pie charts also look good....well diversified....I like that. I see page 22 and what you are saying --- as interest rates go up, so do earnings. That's a good thing. (page 23): As I view this, I see there is so much to learn in the world.
And, yes Mike, I agree with you 100%. It is something that will grow for years to come. By the way, how are those Bills looking this year?
God bless
the Pudd