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@MFO Members: Let's wait and see how U.S. Markets react come Monday morning. I venture to say there will be little if any impact. Greece is a side show , and as I stated in a previous discussion on the subject, should not impact your investment goals. Unfortunately, there as those on the MFO Discussion Board who are obsessed with meaningless headline news from tabloid's like Zero Hedge. I don't think any thinking person will run out and sell all their funds if the Greek Stock Market doesn't open on Monday. This is nothing more than a little ripple on a big investment pond. Regards, Ted
Scott, thanks for this update. If the consequences only affected Greece, then it would still be unfortunate for their populace, but it would have very little impact on global investors. Unfortunately, there are many non-Greece lenders who will be adversely affected by an economic collapse of Greece:
There will be a reaction and most likely a negative one on Monday because we are dealing with a very reactionary market where people sell first and ask questions later and large institutions can dump quickly.
Hey, maybe the market will take this as a sign that this situation can start being moved past and head higher. Who knows, but I have to think a sell-off is more likely.
Does Greece ultimately matter to many companies around the world? No. Is it unfortunate the situation Greece has found itself in? Yes. That said, if the can is not kicked down the road on this again, if it was we would be having this discussion 6-12 months down the road again anyways. The reality would have to be faced at some point - the longer it takes the bigger the bill. Whether it be now or a year from now or three years from now, the situation in Greece will not end well.
I will not be selling anything as a result of this (perhaps a little buying but not much if any) but I absolutely can see a possibility that many people will sell as a result of this.
Additionally, while Greece is unfortunate but will pass, if somehow this becomes disorderly and involves Portugal, Italy and other countries, could start to get concerning.
The other note is that Russia has made advances to Greece. If somehow Greece heads in that direction, could be problematic.
Hi @Ted You may be correct to a point; but the big money talks in many circumstances involving such issues and these money movements can and do affect other investments. This ongoing issue with Greece and its debt has bothered markets over the past 5 years and more so in the May month period; from my recall. Regards, Catch
If there is a view of any or some of this come Monday to the negative, then those who have watched their investment grade bonds ,bite the big one, so far this year; will find an improvement in pricing.........being the likes of IEF, TLT, TIP, LQD and other similar bond notions.
This whole show with and against Greece has many factors in play, eh? ---embarrassment by and from the ECB/EU/IMF and probably many other players. but, Greece among other EU countries was allowed to violate policies that were in place regarding their agreements to entry into this EU monetary program many years ago. Tis not that these debts rations where not also violated by other member states; but most of this is now corrected; in part, because these other countries had/have viable economies that has the ability to recover and are still recovering.
Their is embarrassment from many directions with this; and this is remains part of the problem. The other problems is letting this failed state to reflect upon the remaining, large problems of other failed and border line E.U. member states.
What would be the solution in this country if a state was in total failure and the presumption was that "this" state was to be bailed out by all the other 49 states whether they argreed or not? The assumption being that our Federal Reserve system had the same limitations as of the ECB and related legal frameworks. Some discussions have been in place as to the "full legal" status of some monetary actions and policies that have already taken place.............bond buying, etc.
For the very small (and I can not now find this data) GDP input that is provided to the E.U. from Greece; there are either larger problems that remain "secret" or too many folks are sick and tired of this show, ego's are in the way and/or a precedent does not want to be established that would affect other member states and their relationship to the whole E.U. that would rock the whole economic footings of Europe; and thereby affect the global market place.
Greek parliament just voted to hold the referendum next weekend, and markets don't like uncertainly. The bailout expires on Tuesday, the debt won't be paid as due and the ECB most likely has to decide whether to keep the Greek banks liquid until the referendum, which they may not be able to do without direction from the European Commission. Ugh!
So many are scratching their heads over this Greece debacle. The Greek powers to be seen to be intent on having things their way, including the loan. As many important people in Euro land have stated already, the Greeks do not seem to care.
"The eurozone’s three biggest countries have raised the stakes in next Sunday’s Greek referendum with an orchestrated warning to voters that a no vote would mean exit from the single currency and the return of the drachma.
As the Greek economy suffered on its first day of stringent capital controls, politicians from Germany, France and Italy joined the European commission in insisting that the poll was not about whether Athens could secure more favourable bailout terms but was about continued euro membership."
Europe's big guns warn Greek voters that a no vote means euro exit- Article: The Guardian
Howdy back, @catch22! I find this a fascinating social experiment. Send 3.x euros, get to comment for posterity. Someone figured it would take more than 2,000 euros donated per second to hit the target in 7 days.
"If I only want to work 25 years in my career and retire at 57"
While I take your point, part of the whole societal mess in Greece is that the economy is so paralyzed there are practically no job openings for reasonably well-educated younger people. Early retirement is partially a product of that, with older folks retiring to make room for the younger. But it doesn't really work, and those younger educated people have been leaving Greece in droves for many years.
Greece has virtually no major industrial or international commercial base. It is a fractured small-agriculture, small shop-owner, tourist service oriented economy which never met the requirements for and should never have been admitted to the EU. That admittance was done with a wink and a nod to buttress the Mediterranean against Russian interests during the cold war, with the full connivance of the US and NATO.
Italy was and is a close second in this situation. The rules were bent just short of the point of fracture, and as Scott would probably say, cans were deliberately manufactured with the full intention of kicking them down the road. Well, we're now at the end of that road, and while it's easy and comforting to place all of the blame on shiftless Greeks "retiring at 57" it's just a little bit more complicated than that. As most things usually are.
@MFO Members: I couldn't agree more with Lewis's article link. Regards, Ted " The Greeks are lazy. Like their neighbours, the Italians and the Spaniards and others in southern Europe, they prefer leisure and fun to hard work.” “The Greek worker should find a job instead of loitering on the seaside.” “Why should industrious northern Europeans subsidize the indolence of their Mediterranean cousins and forgive them their ill begotten debts? ”
@MFO, Ah, Ted the cyberbully strikes again, intentionally quoting the myths about Greeks out of context without their appropriate refutation. It's almost sad.
@Lewis: I simply was quoting from your article which I believe is generally true about the attitude of many Greek's toward work and leisure. I believe I'm entitled to my opinion ! Regards, Ted P.S. Please stop calling me a cyberbully
@Ted Stop attacking me and I'll stop calling you a cyberbully. It's quite simple. And don't be coy about the article. You and I know exactly why you are quoting those comments out of context/
Comments
Regards,
Ted
Show Me the Money
Kevin
"A fool and his money..."
Hey, maybe the market will take this as a sign that this situation can start being moved past and head higher. Who knows, but I have to think a sell-off is more likely.
Does Greece ultimately matter to many companies around the world? No. Is it unfortunate the situation Greece has found itself in? Yes. That said, if the can is not kicked down the road on this again, if it was we would be having this discussion 6-12 months down the road again anyways. The reality would have to be faced at some point - the longer it takes the bigger the bill. Whether it be now or a year from now or three years from now, the situation in Greece will not end well.
I will not be selling anything as a result of this (perhaps a little buying but not much if any) but I absolutely can see a possibility that many people will sell as a result of this.
Additionally, while Greece is unfortunate but will pass, if somehow this becomes disorderly and involves Portugal, Italy and other countries, could start to get concerning.
The other note is that Russia has made advances to Greece. If somehow Greece heads in that direction, could be problematic.
Yes. Both Russia and China have eyes on Med. sea access. It doesn't seem like much of anything now but could be later on.
You may be correct to a point; but the big money talks in many circumstances involving such issues and these money movements can and do affect other investments.
This ongoing issue with Greece and its debt has bothered markets over the past 5 years and more so in the May month period; from my recall.
Regards,
Catch
Thank you for the money link.
Take care,
Catch
---embarrassment by and from the ECB/EU/IMF and probably many other players.
but, Greece among other EU countries was allowed to violate policies that were in place regarding their agreements to entry into this EU monetary program many years ago.
Tis not that these debts rations where not also violated by other member states; but most of this is now corrected; in part, because these other countries had/have viable economies that has the ability to recover and are still recovering.
Their is embarrassment from many directions with this; and this is remains part of the problem.
The other problems is letting this failed state to reflect upon the remaining, large problems of other failed and border line E.U. member states.
What would be the solution in this country if a state was in total failure and the presumption was that "this" state was to be bailed out by all the other 49 states whether they argreed or not? The assumption being that our Federal Reserve system had the same limitations as of the ECB and related legal frameworks. Some discussions have been in place as to the "full legal" status of some monetary actions and policies that have already taken place.............bond buying, etc.
For the very small (and I can not now find this data) GDP input that is provided to the E.U. from Greece; there are either larger problems that remain "secret" or too many folks are sick and tired of this show, ego's are in the way and/or a precedent does not want to be established that would affect other member states and their relationship to the whole E.U. that would rock the whole economic footings of Europe; and thereby affect the global market place.
Not spell checked or proofread.
Time to leave...........
Catch
Also, things in Greece....not good.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-28/ignoring-tsipras-plea-calm-greeks-storm-atms-stores-gas-stations
As the Greek economy suffered on its first day of stringent capital controls, politicians from Germany, France and Italy joined the European commission in insisting that the poll was not about whether Athens could secure more favourable bailout terms but was about continued euro membership."
Europe's big guns warn Greek voters that a no vote means euro exit- Article: The Guardian
Get a thank-you card from Tsipras.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-30/this-indiegogo-campaign-is-trying-to-bailout-greece
(Unfortunately, I don't think the donors know where the donated euros will go.)
From the article: "It might seem like a lot but it's only just over €3 from each European."
I find this a fascinating social experiment.
Send 3.x euros, get to comment for posterity.
Someone figured it would take more than 2,000 euros donated per second to hit the target in 7 days.
While I take your point, part of the whole societal mess in Greece is that the economy is so paralyzed there are practically no job openings for reasonably well-educated younger people. Early retirement is partially a product of that, with older folks retiring to make room for the younger. But it doesn't really work, and those younger educated people have been leaving Greece in droves for many years.
Greece has virtually no major industrial or international commercial base. It is a fractured small-agriculture, small shop-owner, tourist service oriented economy which never met the requirements for and should never have been admitted to the EU. That admittance was done with a wink and a nod to buttress the Mediterranean against Russian interests during the cold war, with the full connivance of the US and NATO.
Italy was and is a close second in this situation. The rules were bent just short of the point of fracture, and as Scott would probably say, cans were deliberately manufactured with the full intention of kicking them down the road. Well, we're now at the end of that road, and while it's easy and comforting to place all of the blame on shiftless Greeks "retiring at 57" it's just a little bit more complicated than that. As most things usually are.
Regards,
Ted
" The Greeks are lazy. Like their neighbours, the Italians and the Spaniards and others in southern Europe, they prefer leisure and fun to hard work.” “The Greek worker should find a job instead of loitering on the seaside.” “Why should industrious northern Europeans subsidize the indolence of their Mediterranean cousins and forgive them their ill begotten debts? ”
Regards,
Ted
P.S. Please stop calling me a cyberbully