FYI: Small business sentiment readings are now over their 20 year average, and have moved steadily higher since the crisis ended in 2009. If that uptrend was a stock price, all your momentum trader friends would be buyers.
But you certainly would not get that from reading the NFIB news releases. They have been consistently, persistently, dour — absolutely negative.
Kinda weird . . .
Regards,
Ted
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/06/small-business-optimism-rises-in-may/print/
Comments
A Closer Look at Monetary Policy and its Impact on Financial Markets
By Diane C. Swonk, Chief Economist and Senior Managing Director June 10, 2015
Labor Markets: Almost There
The May employment report suggests that
the labor market is almost there
Payroll employment surged with 280,000
new jobs, well above the 200,000 level
the Fed would like to see on a consistent
basis, while average payroll gains for the
year moved up to 220,000 per month.
•n
The quality of jobs generated improved
along with the quantity as the demand for
college graduates firmed.
•n
Labor force participation rose for the
second month in a row. Almost all of
that improvement occurred among those
with a bachelor’s degree or higher. (Some
millennials are finally getting up off their
parents’ couches and looking for work
again.) Teens, who lost jobs to older
workers in recent years, also looked a
little more aggressively for jobs during
the month.
•n
Most importantly, wages edged higher.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.3%
on a month-to-month basis and rose 2.3%
from a year ago. That is the first time we
have cracked 2.2% on the average hourly
earnings measure since 2011.
http://www.mesirowfinancial.com/economics/swonk/themes/themes_0615.pdf
And not so much;
Emerging Economies Struggle Along with Everyone Else
by Robert Brusca June 4, 2015 Haver Analytics
The clear message from looking at global manufacturing PMIs, their levels, their trends and their dispersion is that the world economy is not doing well and is not getting better. Yet in the U.S., an important source of global demand, the central bank is itching to hike rates. Consumers are still so shell shocked they are not spending income as they earn it; instead the saving rate is rising. Instead of using fiscal policy for stimulus, the U.S. is preparing to use less monetary stimulus. Yet, huge differences among countries' PMI readings exist and are being sustained. There is no global policy to arrest this development nor are individual country policies so aligned. At a time when growth is insufficient, policies are still aimed mostly at austerity and are leaning too much on monetary policy to make the difference. However, you want to categorize global policy- it is not working. And it is not working for everyone, developed countries, developing economies, emerging economies alike. In the final analysis, less is not more.
http://www.haver.com/comment/comment.html?c=150604B.html
And not so much redux:
By Anna Yukhananov WASHINGTON (Reuters)
World Bank warns emerging economies to 'fasten seatbelts' The World Bank on Wednesday cut its global growth outlook for this year and urged countries to "fasten their seat belts" as they adjust to lower commodity prices and a looming rise in U.S. interest rates.
Kaushik Basu, the World Bank's chief economist, said the Federal Reserve should hold off on a rate hike until next year to avoid worsening exchange rate volatility and crimping global growth.
"If I were advising the U.S. Fed, I would recommend that (higher rates) happen next year instead of late this year," due to the mixed economic picture, Basu said, adding that it was his own view rather than that of the World Bank as a whole.
"My own concern is that a relatively early move (in U.S. rates) could cause an exchange rate movement, strengthening of the dollar, which will not be good for the U.S. economy" and have negative repercussions for other countries, he said.
http://news.yahoo.com/world-bank-sees-slower-global-growth-urges-fed-200250758--business.html
cf: Velocity of M2 Money Stock