Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"I am describing the outlook that I see as most likely, but based on many years of making economic projections, I can assure you that any specific projection I write down will turn out to be wrong, perhaps markedly so."
@rjb112: Yellen's hint of a rate increase this December was nothing more than a bluff. She is simply testing the waters to see what kind of reaction will come from Wall St. Their was a small sell-off, but the fact remains the economy is still in a weakened condition and there will no increase till next year. Regards, Ted
I mean, there's a clip with Yellen towards the end of the movie I reference below where she talks about needing to go to an economy that is focused on its resources and operating at full capacity without having to be reliant on bubbles." High comedy, coming from someone who is entirely focused - like the one before her - that another asset bubble is always the answer to a problem.
Bernanke was great at saying a lot and not saying anything, but Yellen with some delightful truthiness here.
It's not as if the Fed's projections have been totally over-optimistic and wrong for years or anything. Yellen telling us what anyone who isn't an apologist for the Fed already knew.
Or, perhaps (but probably not) Yellen is finally coming to the agreement with what I've been saying: the Fed has acted (Bernanke's unrealistic nonsense that he had 100% confidence that he could control the economy) like they can dial up and down the economy like an air conditioner but that with the complexity of the global economy, that is an oversimplification of a complex and volatile system.
Or she's saying that she predicts a rate hike this year but "Hey, I'm probably wrong." When it doesn't happen this year, she can go, "Hey, I said I was probably wrong."
I completely agree with Ted, although I think the sell-off happened later in the day and may have been more people closing positions before the long weekend than anything.
The problem is, what happens next year when we're still in the same situation? Ultimately, I'll say it again, this ends badly, but this time I fear that the global economy looks very different on the other side of it.
From article: And also saying something you almost never hear an economist say: "I have no idea."
Eventually, credibility will start to erode if this goes on too much longer and the market gets tired of all of the BS and the doublespeak when the market senses that it's leading nowhere.
I'm sure we'll get another sequel to this, with a bunch of FOMC members (AGAIN) going, "Well, we were wrong."
The full movie is actually a very good documentary and features interviews with a lot of FOMC members (including Yellen and Paul Volcker) and a lot of familiar names.
@rjb112: Yellen's hint of a rate increase this December was nothing more than a bluff. She is simply testing the waters to see what kind of reaction will come from Wall St. Their was a small sell-off, but the fact remains the economy is still in a weakened condition and there will no increase till next year. Regards, Ted
Ted, if you're right on this, you will deserve a lot of credit.....because you have been steadfast and unwavering with your forecast.
Time will tell.....personally, I believe there will be a rate hike this year..........but I can no more predict than the man on the moon, and you just may be right.
Comments
Regards,
Ted
I mean, there's a clip with Yellen towards the end of the movie I reference below where she talks about needing to go to an economy that is focused on its resources and operating at full capacity without having to be reliant on bubbles." High comedy, coming from someone who is entirely focused - like the one before her - that another asset bubble is always the answer to a problem.
Bernanke was great at saying a lot and not saying anything, but Yellen with some delightful truthiness here.
It's not as if the Fed's projections have been totally over-optimistic and wrong for years or anything. Yellen telling us what anyone who isn't an apologist for the Fed already knew.
Or, perhaps (but probably not) Yellen is finally coming to the agreement with what I've been saying: the Fed has acted (Bernanke's unrealistic nonsense that he had 100% confidence that he could control the economy) like they can dial up and down the economy like an air conditioner but that with the complexity of the global economy, that is an oversimplification of a complex and volatile system.
Or she's saying that she predicts a rate hike this year but "Hey, I'm probably wrong." When it doesn't happen this year, she can go, "Hey, I said I was probably wrong."
I completely agree with Ted, although I think the sell-off happened later in the day and may have been more people closing positions before the long weekend than anything.
The problem is, what happens next year when we're still in the same situation? Ultimately, I'll say it again, this ends badly, but this time I fear that the global economy looks very different on the other side of it.
From article: And also saying something you almost never hear an economist say: "I have no idea."
Eventually, credibility will start to erode if this goes on too much longer and the market gets tired of all of the BS and the doublespeak when the market senses that it's leading nowhere.
I'm sure we'll get another sequel to this, with a bunch of FOMC members (AGAIN) going, "Well, we were wrong."
The full movie is actually a very good documentary and features interviews with a lot of FOMC members (including Yellen and Paul Volcker) and a lot of familiar names.
Time will tell.....personally, I believe there will be a rate hike this year..........but I can no more predict than the man on the moon, and you just may be right.