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Dollar Hits 4 Month Low

hank
edited May 2015 in Off-Topic
Interesting turn of events. One possibility is that currency traders view our Fed as a bit "behind the curve" in its (anticipated) rate hikes. Of course, that's just of of many possible reasons for the reversal.

Interestingly, both the global bond fund I own (DODLX) and another one I track and sometimes own (OIBAX) are still in the red for the year.

The Dollar reversal is probably in part responsible for the uptick in commodities prices lately. Oil has regained about 50% of its value since it bottomed in January. Just a whiff of food inflation maybe in wheat jumping about 5% today - if I can trust Bloomberg's ticker.

My commodities fund (QRAAX) is still negative for the year and off 25-30% over one year. Energy heavy PRNEX is up about 3-4% YTD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-14/dollar-bulls-wondering-what-went-wrong-in-drop-to-four-month-low

Comments

  • [Deleted User]
    The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • scott
    edited May 2015
    Everyone thought the DXY would go over 100 and then on to 125. Everyone thought the Euro would go to parity then 80. So many people thought oil would go to 30 (shrugs.)
  • JunksterJunkster
    scott said:

    Everyone thought the DXY would go over 100 and then on to 125. Everyone thought the Euro would go to parity then 80. So many people thought oil would go to 30 (shrugs.)

    Nice observations and how it has always been. The obvious is never so obvious. Junk bonds are close to hitting all time highs. And that's in the face of a lot of seasoned veterans saying get the heck out with Icahn being the most recent. Someday they will be prove prescient, but in the meantime........
  • hank
    edited May 2015
    Thanks Maurice - Interesting.

    TPINX is ahead of DODLX by 1 or 2% YTD. I note that it has only about 3% in U.S./Canadian holdings, while DODLX is at nearly 50% U.S./Canadian.

    I like some (small amount) of foreign bond exposure. However, the very low rates aren't just in the U.S. - so it's going to be an uphill struggle for most/all these funds. While the Dollar has slumped recently, which should help, rates have also been rising, which works against them.

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