Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Here is a thoughtful look at whether we are probably in the middle innings of a long-term secular bull market or in the late innings of a short-term cyclical bull market. Its a useful issue to think about as we consider how to position our portfolios.
I think that is what the first chart is showing. The P/E ratio declines from a long term peak to a long term trough to define the boundaries of that period. And, the S&P 500 (in red) only increases by 33% during that 15 or 16 year period. The nature and extent of the most recent time period(s?) is/are left undetermined by use of "???%" .... i.e. Has the latest secular bear market really ended or has it just enjoyed a liquidity induced reprieve? That's my reading of the chart.
Here is a link that shows how Crestmont Research uses the PE ratio to bracket past bull and bear market turns:
Comments
I think that is what the first chart is showing. The P/E ratio declines from a long term peak to a long term trough to define the boundaries of that period. And, the S&P 500 (in red) only increases by 33% during that 15 or 16 year period. The nature and extent of the most recent time period(s?) is/are left undetermined by use of "???%" .... i.e. Has the latest secular bear market really ended or has it just enjoyed a liquidity induced reprieve? That's my reading of the chart.
Here is a link that shows how Crestmont Research uses the PE ratio to bracket past bull and bear market turns:
crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Secular-PE.pdf