Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
The Breakfast Briefing: U.S. Why We Might Not Be in Bubble Territory Just Yet
Sort of a curiously written article. If you go to Goldman's own site, here's their take on their research:
Investors see growing overvaluations in both bonds and equities and have signaled concern about a valuation bubble forming, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for April.
The proportion of global investors saying equity markets are overvalued has reached its highest level since 2000. A net 25 percent of respondents to the global survey say that global equities are currently overvalued, up from a net 23 percent in March and a net 8 percent in February. This is still, however, short of the record-high level of a net 42 percent in 1999.
At the same time, the proportion of respondents saying that bond markets are overvalued has reached a new high in the survey’s history.
Only 25% of investment managers think the market is (even a little?) overvalued? But even at the 1999 peak of the internet bubble (I guess bubbles don't actually have "peaks" but I was having trouble getting a better phrase), only a minority of managers thought it was?
I wonder if a better headline would be: "Majority of investment managers institutionally blinded to evidence of unsustainable valuations"?
Were not some of the "institutional" folks still prompting to buy equities from late 2007 until the "melt"? I had a cluster of web sites saved until recently; that probably included some of these folks and surely had a long list of "market gurus" still with the "buy" flag waving from the pole.
From another post regarding GMO, I felt it necessary to admonish Junkster because he defamed the man in the moon:
Junkster And if you go back to their forecasts beginning in 2009 you will see how this stuff is worthless - utterly worthless in fact. These guys have no more clue than you, me, and the man in the moon.
And I replied:
Now, now... for all we know the man in the moon might be on top of all of this. Besides, lots of folks like fortune tellers- they've been around one heck of a long time. "Fortunes Told!! Financial Futures Forecast!!
Comments
I wonder if a better headline would be: "Majority of investment managers institutionally blinded to evidence of unsustainable valuations"?
David
@AndyJ- Well and truly said!
I had a cluster of web sites saved until recently; that probably included some of these folks and surely had a long list of "market gurus" still with the "buy" flag waving from the pole.
Junkster
And if you go back to their forecasts beginning in 2009 you will see how this stuff is worthless - utterly worthless in fact. These guys have no more clue than you, me, and the man in the moon.
And I replied:
Now, now... for all we know the man in the moon might be on top of all of this. Besides, lots of folks like fortune tellers- they've been around one heck of a long time.
"Fortunes Told!! Financial Futures Forecast!!
Seems to fit pretty well here, too.