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The weather excuse whenever things aren't going well during this time of year is garbage. Grew up in the midwest and it was (and still is) cold as a MFer at times in the Winter and the world didn't/doesn't shut down. The revisions to prior month/s weren't good either.
Actually, most of the country had a decent or even a mild winter. For those in the NE or the Middle part, it was brutal for sure. Weather is always a good crutch to use.
The big number is the actual number of people that have dropped off the labor force. It is approaching 100 million. A lot of people are not working or working much less hours than before. The average hours worked is around 34 a week if I read the report correctly. That is not a sign of a good economy.
You noted: "The average hours worked is around 34 a week if I read the report correctly."
Can not write to this properly, and don't have the spare time for a news scan; but I recall the hours per week have cutoff points for most business functions as to when a person is considered a fulltime employee. This also functions as an hours worked point related to whether benefits are available to that person.
The weather excuse whenever things aren't going well during this time of year is garbage. Grew up in the midwest and it was (and still is) cold as a MFer at times in the Winter and the world didn't/doesn't shut down. The revisions to prior month/s weren't good either.
Not only that, but building etc. season in essentially the entire West never even missed a beat this year; it was September until December and then April from the latter part of January to, well, April. Even if winter (which comes every year; need we remind the pundits?) slowed some parts of the country more than usual, the slowdown would have been offset significantly by ridiculously mild weather in much of the rest.
there was also the port strike. I'm very curious how the ongoing drought is going to start showing up in employment numbers. It is going to be an ugly summer in the west.
The port strike was huge. Some industries like the apple growers lost 25-35% of their revenue due to not being able to export. Most of those apples just rotted.
The drought is going to have an effect too. While agriculture is not being affected by the CA. decision to reduce usage, they cannot depend on that going on for very long. If California agriculture gets hit, that could crimp this economy much more. A lot of food comes out if that state. Higher prices would follow.
Weather and the port strike are REAL factors. Cripes, I hardly even left the house in February. Truly abominable, detestable, filthy and bad in every way.
Come on, guys. Spring pollen counts, winter severity, soil temp inversion dates, labor strikes--- these aren't things that determine for the Fed what the interest rates should be. So what are they using? She "hinted" during a speech last Friday (25 f*king times!); but the American press must have been too enraptured with her attire, or something, and they missed it. Here it is, developed by Gavyn Davies @ FT:
I have tried to listen to Janet Yellen but frankly, she is hard to listen to. It's her monotone delivery. Her attire is monotone too. I can see why the press would miss any hints she would give. The Bernanke was the same way but not quite as bad. Greenspan was always fun to listen to. I usually learned a new word from each of his speeches.
Comments
The big number is the actual number of people that have dropped off the labor force. It is approaching 100 million. A lot of people are not working or working much less hours than before. The average hours worked is around 34 a week if I read the report correctly. That is not a sign of a good economy.
You noted: "The average hours worked is around 34 a week if I read the report correctly."
Can not write to this properly, and don't have the spare time for a news scan; but I recall the hours per week have cutoff points for most business functions as to when a person is considered a fulltime employee. This also functions as an hours worked point related to whether benefits are available to that person.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-03/here-s-why-the-march-jobs-report-wasn-t-as-bad-as-you-think
The drought is going to have an effect too. While agriculture is not being affected by the CA. decision to reduce usage, they cannot depend on that going on for very long. If California agriculture gets hit, that could crimp this economy much more. A lot of food comes out if that state. Higher prices would follow.
http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2015/04/02/yellen-shoots-for-equilibrium-interest-rates/
I have tried to listen to Janet Yellen but frankly, she is hard to listen to. It's her monotone delivery. Her attire is monotone too. I can see why the press would miss any hints she would give. The Bernanke was the same way but not quite as bad. Greenspan was always fun to listen to. I usually learned a new word from each of his speeches.