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@Scott: The current stock futures were linked by me as soon as the jobs numbers became available in my Breakfast Briefing. Since you failed to provide them, here they are again. Regards, Ted Current Future: http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
@Catch22: "I'd really like to see them try and raise rates this year." Once again, read my lips "No rate increase until 4/16", and after today's jobs report could be 6/16. Regards, ted
@Catch22: "I'd really like to see them try and raise rates this year." Once again, read my lips "No rate increase until 4/16", and after today's jobs report could be 6/16. Regards, ted
I don't disagree with you. "This year" becomes next year and then wouldn't shock me if the goalposts got moved back further.
This is "Hotel California" monetary policy - "You can check out any time you like but you can never leave."
At some point the market calls the Fed's bluff. My concern is that this gets worse and the Fed takes further extraordinary measures (QE and ZIRP weren't the end, just the beginning.)
Related to the above and rates, I have posted this several times, as we still have bonds at this house; and understand the possible impact of yields upon our entire investment arena.
They need to see some decent inflation before they raise rates IMO. I think the threat from deflation is far more serious than inflation right now with the labor force participation rate, median income and aging demographics.
The money they are creating simply isn't making it out into the hands of actual people so what is the point in raising rates?
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate Also: The Capital Spectator US Payrolls Suffered A Dramatic Slowdown In Growth Last Month That said, next week’s updates on payrolls deserve close attention for deciding if today’s disappointing news is more than noise. In particular, Monday’s releases of the Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index and the Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index are required reading. We’ll also see fresh numbers on the state of the US services sectors via the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index on Monday—pay particular attention to the payrolls component. On Tuesday, the Labor Department updates its JOLTS data, aka the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
Meantime, it now looks like the first quarter for the US economy overall suffered a setback. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s revised GDPNow estimate for growth in Q1 slumped to zero as of Apr. 2. It’s still debatable if this is a temporary setback or a prelude to deeper troubles in Q2. Perhaps next week’s data will fill in the missing blanks. http://www.capitalspectator.com/us-payrolls-suffered-a-dramatic-slowdown-in-growth-last-month/
Not me.. It is possible to see this kind of treatment of money. The rich will always have money. Then again it depends on the meaning of rich. It is one's attitude towards the rich that defines their political stance somewhat. Personally I don't worry about the rich and it is a goal of sorts to achieve. There are many ways to be rich too.
At some point, Peter will have taken all he can from Paul and Paul will say no or move. Then what will Peter do? There are some fascinating statistics coming out of California and NewJersey showing population trends. The richer ones are leaving and immigrants are taking their place.
They need to see some decent inflation before they raise rates IMO. I think the threat from deflation is far more serious than inflation right now with the labor force participation rate, median income and aging demographics.
The money they are creating simply isn't making it out into the hands of actual people so what is the point in raising rates?
I agree with Clancy - except I think they feel backed into a corner and will raise rates (in 2015) just to demonstrate to the markets that they can do it.
@hank- that wouldn't really surprise me, but if they do they'll try to pick their timing carefully and the raise will be minimal. But they just have to start notching it up at some point, if for no other reason than to regain the ability to cut the rates when a future situation requires that.
'Course..........whilst the current tide of money flows still finds that money has no problem buying the most highly regarded 10 year government issue in the world; one may suspect that an interest rate increase on the short end of the yield curve could attempt to push the U.S. 10 yield higher, IMHO; perhaps even more money would flow into this area, keeping yields low. There will continue to be many variables, globally; and we won't discover how this plays out until the time arrives. Any of us here may be as brillant, with a conclusion; as the most educated economic mind(s), as to the course of events in this area over the next several years.
Lastly, we started our Easter egg hunt early and find that just about all them are full to each inside surface. We've been lucky kids at this house, so far; this year.
My guess is that the Fed would want 6-9 months of a good economy before a rate change upwards. This economy has been very lean and "polka dotted", that is some areas are doing well and others are not. But, things are sputtering so I don't see it for this year anyway.
That keeps the bond funds in favor for just a bit longer.
Comments
Regards,
Ted
Current Future:
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
They must have read the Iran nuclear agreement.
Ha !!! Yes, Monday will be interesting, in spite of some other markets being closed.
Bondland will be interesting, too. Likely some big upward moves in 10-30 year pricing.
Ms. Yellen and other similar friends will continue the head scratching, eh?
I recall Forex and perhaps CME open for a half day or so, today.
Take care,
Catch
Regards,
ted
Oh, I won't disagree with you one bit; although that is scott's quote you noted.
Still a lot of "potholes" along the economic road ahead; not unlike the potholes that consume our roads in Michigan.
And I do watch finviz, too.
Take care,
Catch
This is "Hotel California" monetary policy - "You can check out any time you like but you can never leave."
At some point the market calls the Fed's bluff. My concern is that this gets worse and the Fed takes further extraordinary measures (QE and ZIRP weren't the end, just the beginning.)
Related to the above and rates, I have posted this several times, as we still have bonds at this house; and understand the possible impact of yields upon our entire investment arena.
An update from my prior posts regarding rates....
Global 10 year yield data
Take care,
Catch
Treasury market was open, but closed at noon. The 10 year Treasury yield dropped to 1.845% - a 2-month low.
Neither of the above would appear earth-shattering.
I agree with you. It's just a jobs report. It's not like the Fed said anything -- (lol).
The money they are creating simply isn't making it out into the hands of actual people so what is the point in raising rates?
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate
Also:
The Capital Spectator
US Payrolls Suffered A Dramatic Slowdown In Growth Last Month
That said, next week’s updates on payrolls deserve close attention for deciding if today’s disappointing news is more than noise. In particular, Monday’s releases of the Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index and the Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index are required reading. We’ll also see fresh numbers on the state of the US services sectors via the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index on Monday—pay particular attention to the payrolls component. On Tuesday, the Labor Department updates its JOLTS data, aka the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
Meantime, it now looks like the first quarter for the US economy overall suffered a setback. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s revised GDPNow estimate for growth in Q1 slumped to zero as of Apr. 2. It’s still debatable if this is a temporary setback or a prelude to deeper troubles in Q2. Perhaps next week’s data will fill in the missing blanks.
http://www.capitalspectator.com/us-payrolls-suffered-a-dramatic-slowdown-in-growth-last-month/
At some point, Peter will have taken all he can from Paul and Paul will say no or move. Then what will Peter do? There are some fascinating statistics coming out of California and NewJersey showing population trends. The richer ones are leaving and immigrants are taking their place.
We all do what we have to.
There will continue to be many variables, globally; and we won't discover how this plays out until the time arrives.
Any of us here may be as brillant, with a conclusion; as the most educated economic mind(s), as to the course of events in this area over the next several years.
Lastly, we started our Easter egg hunt early and find that just about all them are full to each inside surface.
We've been lucky kids at this house, so far; this year.
That keeps the bond funds in favor for just a bit longer.